Interviews with 1,313 adult Indonesians conducted by telephone by ROC International on June 21-30, 2014 in 33 Province in Indonesia . The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The sample also includes 1083 interviews among registered voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 983 interviews among likely voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points).
The sample includes 856 interviews among landline respondents and 457 interviews among cell phone respondents.
METHODOLOGY
A total of 1,313 adults were interviewed by telephone nationwide by live interviewers calling both landline and cell phones. All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 783 respondents were classified as likely voters
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted June. 21-30, 2014, on the ROC International , with a random sample of 1,313 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 33 Indonesia Province .
For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±3percentage points
Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Java ethnicity and Non Java , education, region, adults in the household, population density, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized Indonesia population. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa as the GERINDRA with Coalition Party’s candidates, and Joko Widodo and Jusup Kala as the PDIP with Coalition Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for Prabowo Subianto and Hatta Rajasa or Joko Widodo and Jusup Kala (IF UNSURE:) As of today, who do you lean more toward?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Likely Voters | Registered Voters | ||
| Prabowo-Hatta |
52 % |
50% |
|
| Joko Widodo –Jusup Kala |
46% |
48% |
|
| No opinion |
2% |
2% |
2.a.(Asked Prabowo Voters ) Is that more a vote FOR Prabowo or more a vote AGAINST Joko Widodo ?
| Vote for Prabowo | Vote for Joko Widodo | No opinion | |
| Likely Voters |
92 % |
6% |
2% |
| Registered Voters |
90% |
8% |
2% |
2.b.(Asked Joko Widodo Voters ) Is that more a vote FOR Joko Widodo or more a vote AGAINST Prabowo ?
| Vote for Joko Widodo | Vote for Prabowo | No opinion | |
| Likely Voters |
73 % |
14% |
13% |
| Registered Voters |
80% |
19% |
11% |
3. Is your mind made up about who you will vote for, or is it possible you would change your mind?
|
Mind Made Up |
Might Change Mind |
No opinion |
|
| Likely Voters |
87 % |
9% |
4% |
| Registered Voters |
76% |
19% |
5% |
4a. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in June extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
|
Extremely enthusiastic |
Very enthusiastic |
Somewhat enthusiastic |
No Too enthusiastic |
Not at all enthusiastic |
No opinion |
|
| Registered Voters |
40% |
32% |
15% |
4% |
5% |
4% |
4b. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in June extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
|
Extremely enthusiastic |
Very enthusiastic |
Somewhat enthusiastic |
No Too enthusiastic |
Not at all enthusiastic |
No opinion |
|
| Registered Gerindra &Coalition |
45% |
41% |
9% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
4c. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in June extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
|
Extremely enthusiastic |
Very enthusiastic |
Somewhat enthusiastic |
No Too enthusiastic |
Not at all enthusiastic |
No opinion |
|
| Registered PDIP & Coalition |
37% |
37% |
12% |
7% |
2% |
5% |
5. We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people — or if you have never heard of them. (RANDOM ORDER)
| Prabowo Subianto |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
| Likely Voters |
58% |
30% |
7% |
5% |
| Registereds voter |
67% |
21% |
8% |
4% |
| Joko Widodo |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
| Likely Voters |
59% |
32% |
7% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
68% |
20% |
9% |
3% |
6. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following candidates on the issues that matter most to you. (RANDOM ORDER)
| Prabowo Subianto |
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
| Likely Voters |
79% |
12% |
9% |
| Registereds voter |
87% |
10% |
3% |
| All Indonesian |
84% |
10% |
6% |
| Joko Widodo |
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
| Likely Voters |
69% |
24% |
7% |
| Registereds voter |
65% |
23% |
12% |
| All Indonesian |
68% |
24% |
8% |
7.Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that each of the following candidates has the personality and leadership qualities a President should have. (RANDOM ORDER)
| Prabowo Subianto |
Agree Has qualities |
Disagree Does not |
No opinion |
| Likely Voters |
89% |
7% |
4% |
| Registereds voter |
92% |
4% |
4% |
| All Indonesian |
90% |
3% |
7% |
| Prabowo Subianto |
Agree Has qualities |
Disagree Does not |
No opinion |
| Likely Voters |
58% |
36% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
63% |
34% |
3% |
| All Indonesian |
60% |
35% |
5% |
8.Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide whom to vote for where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you, or the leadership skills and vision you think the candidates would have as president?
|
Stands on issues |
Leadership skills and vision |
Both equally |
Neither |
No opinion |
|
| Likely Voters |
41% |
42% |
12% |
3% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
44% |
38% |
10% |
4% |
4% |
| All Indonesian |
48% |
41% |
7% |
3% |
1% |
9. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year — will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? (RANDOM ORDER)
|
Economy |
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No
opinion |
| Likely Voters |
41% |
42% |
12% |
3% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
44% |
38% |
10% |
4% |
4% |
| All Indonesian |
48% |
41% |
7% |
3% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Foreign policy |
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No
opinion |
| Likely Voters |
44% |
43% |
11% |
1% |
1% |
| Registereds voter |
46% |
38% |
6% |
6% |
4% |
| All Indonesian |
51% |
37% |
8% |
3% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Health care |
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No
opinion |
| Likely Voters |
41% |
42% |
12% |
3% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
44% |
38% |
10% |
4% |
4% |
| All Indonesian |
48% |
41% |
7% |
3% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Social Security and Medicare |
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No
opinion |
| Likely Voters |
70% |
22% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
64% |
28% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
| All Indonesian |
68% |
22% |
5% |
4% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Education /Culture |
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No
opinion |
| Likely Voters |
71% |
22% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
| Registereds voter |
74% |
18% |
6% |
1% |
1% |
| All Indonesian |
68% |
21% |
7% |
3% |
1% |
| National Depends |
Extremely important |
Very important |
Moderately important |
Not that important |
No
opinion |
| Likely Voters |
51% |
36% |
8% |
3% |
2% |
| Registereds voter |
54% |
29% |
10% |
2% |
5% |
| All Indonesian |
58% |
29% |
8% |
3% |
2% |
10.Which of the following statements best describes your view of the economy: It will only get better if Prabowo Subianto is elected President, It will only get better if Mitt Romney is elected President, It will get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo is elected or It will not get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo is elected.
|
Likely Voters |
Registereds voters |
|
| Will get better only if Prabowo elected |
51% |
67% |
| Will get better only if Joko Widodo elected |
30% |
27% |
| Will get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo is elected |
10% |
3% |
| Will not get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo is elected |
7% |
2% |
| No opinion |
3% |
1% |
11. Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in June – Prabowo Subianto or Joko Widodo ?
|
Likely Voters |
Registereds voters |
|
| Prabowo Subianto |
59% |
59% |
| Joko Widodo |
37% |
38% |
| No opinion |
4% |
3% |
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prabowo Subianto is handling his job as president?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
| Prabowo Subianto |
71% |
19% |
10% |
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joko Widodo is handling his job as president?
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No opinion |
|
| Joko Widodo |
51% |
36% |
13% |
14. How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today — as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?
|
very good |
somewhat good |
somewhat poor |
very poor |
No opinion |
Total good |
Total poor |
|
34% |
26% |
13% |
10% |
7% |
60% |
23% |
15. Now I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one after debate , please tell me if you think Prabowo Subianto or Joko Widodo would better handle that issue if they were elected President. (RANDOM
a. The economy
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 50% |
49% |
1% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 52% |
43% |
5% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 53% |
41% |
6% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 49% |
44% |
7% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 53% |
41% |
6% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 55% |
40% |
5% |
b.Foreign policy
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 52% |
44% |
4% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 54% |
42% |
4% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 56% |
41% |
3% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 53% |
43% |
4% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 54% |
41% |
5% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 55% |
39% |
6% |
c.Medicare
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 50% |
46% |
4% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 51% |
48% |
1% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 51% |
48% |
1% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 54% |
44% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 55% |
42% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 56% |
42% |
2% |
d.Utilized of The State Budget
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 54% |
40% |
4% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 56% |
38% |
6% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 58% |
40% |
2% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 54% |
43% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 55% |
42% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 59% |
40% |
1% |
e.Utilized and Protection of National Asset for Indonesia Economy
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 54% |
40% |
4% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 60% |
36% |
4% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 61% |
34% |
3% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 54% |
43% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 57% |
40% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 61% |
37% |
2% |
f.Health care
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 49% |
48% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 50% |
49% |
1% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 52% |
41% |
7% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 49% |
49% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 50% |
48% |
2% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 50% |
49% |
1% |
g.Education
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 49% |
48% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 50% |
49% |
1% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 52% |
41% |
7% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 49% |
49% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 52% |
46% |
2% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 55% |
44% |
1% |
h.National Food Security
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 59% |
38% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 62% |
35% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 64% |
30% |
6% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 61% |
37% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 64% |
28% |
8% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 67% |
29% |
4% |
j.Unemployment
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 60% |
38% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 64% |
34% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 65% |
30% |
5% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 65% |
33% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 65% |
34% |
1% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 67% |
30% |
3% |
h.Mortgage and housing issues
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 59% |
38% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 62% |
35% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 64% |
30% |
6% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 61% |
37% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 64% |
28% |
8% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 67% |
29% |
4% |
i.Stability of national security
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 68% |
28% |
4% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 69% |
26% |
5% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 70% |
26% |
4% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 71% |
34% |
5% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 74% |
25% |
1% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 75% |
23% |
2% |
j.investment from domestic and foreign
| Likely Voters
|
Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 59% |
38% |
3% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 62% |
35% |
3% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 64% |
30% |
6% |
| Registereds voters | Prabowo Subianto | Joko Widodo |
No opinion |
| June. 21-24, 2014 | 61% |
37% |
2% |
| June. 25-27, 2014 | 64% |
28% |
8% |
| June. 28-30, 2014 | 67% |
29% |
4% |
16. All this month campaigning has focused on swing voters and the race concludes with each candidate holding equally strong advantages with one gender and closely matched in support by party identification. Joko Widodo a 10-percentage point lost among men, 43% to 53%, while Prabowo is winning by nearly the same margin, 52% to 44%, among women. The two are roughly tied among independents — 46% favor Prabowo and 42% Joko . Each candidate has support of his Coalition party, with 66% of backing Joko Widodo and 83% of Prabowo Coalition Party supporting Prabowo Subianto
Electability favor of Prabowo-Hatta and Joko Widodo Jusup Kala Base of Demography voters
| Voters |
PrabowoSubianto/ Hatta Rajasa |
Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala |
No Opinion |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
| Men |
53 |
43 |
4 |
| Women |
52 |
44 |
4 |
|
|
|||
| 18 to 29 years |
57 |
38 |
5 |
| 30 to 49 years |
49 |
50 |
1 |
| 50 to 64years |
51 |
45 |
4 |
| 64 to olders |
56 |
37 |
7 |
| Voters |
PrabowoSubianto/ Hatta Rajasa |
Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala |
No Opinion |
| Jawa |
51 |
45 |
4 |
| Sunda |
65 |
27 |
8 |
| Melayu |
65 |
26 |
9 |
| Batak |
45 |
53 |
2 |
| Padang |
56 |
38 |
6 |
| Madura |
66 |
25 |
9 |
| Tionghoa |
43 |
47 |
10 |
| Bali |
56 |
41 |
3 |
| Bugis |
49 |
47 |
4 |
| Makasar |
51 |
46 |
3 |
| Dayak |
52 |
44 |
4 |
| Aceh |
62 |
36 |
2 |
| Lainya |
56 |
42 |
2 |
| Voters |
PrabowoSubianto/ Hatta Rajasa |
Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala |
No Opinion |
| Sumatera Region |
58 |
39 |
3 |
| Jawa Region |
54 |
43 |
3 |
| Kalimantan Region |
51 |
47 |
2 |
| Sulawesi Region |
51 |
45 |
4 |
| NTB /Bali Region |
62 |
39 |
9 |
| Papua/Maluku Region |
61 |
32 |
7 |
| Voters |
PrabowoSubianto/ Hatta Rajasa |
Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala |
No Opinion |
| Islam |
62 |
36 |
2 |
| Christian Protestan |
43 |
52 |
5 |
| Rome Chatolik |
51 |
40 |
9 |
| Budhis |
54 |
39 |
7 |
| Hindu |
57 |
39 |
4 |
| Lainya |
54 |
39 |
7 |
|
|
|||
| Elementery School |
50 |
45 |
5 |
| Middle school |
54 |
40 |
6 |
| High School |
56 |
38 |
4 |
| Bachelor |
57 |
32 |
1 |
| Post Graduate- |
60 |
36 |
4 |
|
|
|||
| GERINDRA Coalition |
83 |
4 |
13 |
| PDIP Coalition |
12 |
66 |
22 |
| Independent |
46 |
42 |
12 |
By Weber Davis
