March 29, 2024

 

Interviewswith1,313 adultIndonesiansconducted by telephone by ROC International on June 2130, 2014 in 33 Province in Indonesia .  Themarginof samplingerrorfor resultsbased on the total sampleisplusor minus3 percentage points.

Thesamplealso includes1083 interviewsamongregisteredvoters (plusor minus3.5 percentage points)and 983 interviewsamong likelyvoters(plusor minus3.5 percentage points).

Thesampleincludes856 interviewsamonglandline respondents and 457 interviewsamongcell phonerespondents.

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

METHODOLOGY

Atotalof 1,313 adultswere interviewed bytelephonenationwideby liveinterviewerscallingbothlandline andcellphones.  Allrespondents were asked questionsconcerningbasic demographics,andthe entire sample was weightedto reflectnationalCensusfiguresfor gender, race,age, education,region of country, telephoneusageand whetherrespondentsown or renttheirhomes.  Registeredvoterswereasked questions abouttheirlikelihoodof voting,pastvotingbehavior,and interestinthe campaign;based on answersto thosequestions,783 respondents were classifiedaslikely voters

Results are based on telephone interviews conducted June. 21-30, 2014, on the ROC International , with a random sample of 1,313 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 33 Indonesia Province .

For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±3percentage points

Samples are weighted by gender, age, race, Java  ethnicity and Non Java , education, region, adults in the household, population density, and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both, cell phone mostly, and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the 2010 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized Indonesia  population. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

 

1. Suppose that the presidential election were being held today and you had to choose between Prabowo Subianto  and Hatta Rajasa  as the GERINDRA with  Coalition  Party’s candidates, and  Joko Widodo and  Jusup Kala as the  PDIP  with Coalition Party’s candidates. Who would you be more likely to vote for Prabowo Subianto  and Hatta Rajasa   or Joko Widodo and  Jusup Kala (IF UNSURE:) As of  today, who do you lean more toward?

Likely Voters

Registered Voters

Prabowo-Hatta

52 %

50%

Joko Widodo –Jusup Kala

46%

48%

No opinion

2%

2%

2.a.(Asked Prabowo Voters ) Is that more a vote FOR Prabowo  or more a vote AGAINST  Joko Widodo ?

Vote for Prabowo

Vote for Joko Widodo

No opinion

Likely Voters

92 %

6%

2%

Registered Voters

90%

8%

2%

2.b.(Asked Joko Widodo  Voters ) Is that more a vote FOR Joko Widodo or more a vote AGAINST  Prabowo ?

Vote for Joko Widodo

Vote for Prabowo

No opinion

Likely Voters

73 %

14%

13%

Registered Voters

80%

19%

11%

3. Is your mind made up about who you will vote for, or is it possible you would change your mind?

Mind

Made Up

Might

Change Mind

No opinion

Likely Voters

87 %

9%

4%

Registered Voters

76%

19%

5%

4a. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in June  extremely  enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all  enthusiastic?

Extremely

enthusiastic

Very

enthusiastic

Somewhat

enthusiastic

No Too

enthusiastic

Not at all enthusiastic

No opinion

Registered Voters

40%

32%

15%

4%

5%

4%

4b. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in June  extremely  enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all  enthusiastic?

Extremely

enthusiastic

Very

enthusiastic

Somewhat

enthusiastic

No Too

enthusiastic

Not at all enthusiastic

No opinion

Registered Gerindra &Coalition

45%

41%

9%

2%

2%

1%

4c. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting for president in June  extremely  enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not at all  enthusiastic?

Extremely

enthusiastic

Very

enthusiastic

Somewhat

enthusiastic

No Too

enthusiastic

Not at all enthusiastic

No opinion

Registered PDIP & Coalition

37%

37%

12%

7%

2%

5%

5. We’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say  if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people — or if you have never heard of  them. (RANDOM ORDER)

Prabowo Subianto

Favorable

Unfavorable

Never heard of

No opinion

Likely Voters

58%

30%

7%

5%

Registereds voter

67%

21%

8%

4%

Joko Widodo

Favorable

Unfavorable

Never heard of

No opinion

Likely Voters

59%

32%

7%

2%

Registereds voter

68%

20%

9%

3%

6. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following candidates on the issues  that matter most to you. (RANDOM ORDER)

Prabowo Subianto

Agree

Disagree

No opinion

Likely Voters

79%

12%

9%

Registereds voter

87%

10%

3%

All Indonesian

84%

10%

6%

Joko Widodo

Agree

Disagree

No opinion

Likely Voters

69%

24%

7%

Registereds voter

65%

23%

12%

All Indonesian

68%

24%

8%

7.Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that each of the following candidates has the  personality and leadership qualities a President should have. (RANDOM ORDER)

Prabowo Subianto

Agree

Has qualities

Disagree

Does not

No

opinion

Likely Voters

89%

7%

4%

Registereds voter

92%

4%

4%

All Indonesian

90%

3%

7%

Prabowo Subianto

Agree

Has qualities

Disagree

Does not

No

opinion

Likely Voters

58%

36%

2%

Registereds voter

63%

34%

3%

All Indonesian

60%

35%

5%

8.Which of the following do you think will be most important to you when you decide whom to vote for  where the candidates stand on issues that matter to you, or the leadership skills and vision you  think the candidates would have as president?

Stands

on issues

Leadership skills and vision

Both equally

Neither

No

opinion

Likely Voters

41%

42%

12%

3%

2%

Registereds voter

44%

38%

10%

4%

4%

All Indonesian

48%

41%

7%

3%

1%

9. How important will each of the following issues be to your vote for President next year — will it be extremely important, very important, moderately important, or not that important? (RANDOM  ORDER)

Economy

Extremely important

Very

 important

Moderately important

Not that

important

No

opinion

Likely Voters

41%

42%

12%

3%

2%

Registereds voter

44%

38%

10%

4%

4%

All Indonesian

48%

41%

7%

3%

1%

 

 

 

Foreign policy

Extremely important

Very

 important

Moderately important

Not that

important

No

opinion

Likely Voters

44%

43%

11%

1%

1%

Registereds voter

46%

38%

6%

6%

4%

All Indonesian

51%

37%

8%

3%

1%

 

 

 

Health care

Extremely important

Very

 important

Moderately important

Not that

important

No

opinion

Likely Voters

41%

42%

12%

3%

2%

Registereds voter

44%

38%

10%

4%

4%

All Indonesian

48%

41%

7%

3%

1%

 

 

 

Social Security and Medicare

Extremely important

Very

 important

Moderately important

Not that

important

No

opinion

Likely Voters

70%

22%

3%

3%

2%

Registereds voter

64%

28%

3%

2%

3%

All Indonesian

68%

22%

5%

4%

1%

 

 

 

Education /Culture

Extremely important

Very

 important

Moderately important

Not that

important

No

opinion

Likely Voters

71%

22%

4%

2%

1%

Registereds voter

74%

18%

6%

1%

1%

All Indonesian

68%

21%

7%

3%

1%

National Depends

Extremely important

Very

 important

Moderately important

Not that

important

No

opinion

Likely Voters

51%

36%

8%

3%

2%

Registereds voter

54%

29%

10%

2%

5%

All Indonesian

58%

29%

8%

3%

2%

10.Which of the following statements best describes your view of the economy: It will only get better if Prabowo Subianto  is elected President, It will only get better if Mitt Romney is elected President, It will get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo  is elected or It will not get better if either Prabowo  or  Joko Widodo is elected.

Likely Voters

Registereds voters

Will get better only if Prabowo elected

51%

67%

Will get better only if Joko Widodo elected

30%

27%

Will get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo is  elected

10%

3%

Will not get better if either Prabowo or Joko Widodo is  elected

7%

2%

No opinion

3%

1%

11. Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will  win the election in June – Prabowo Subianto or Joko Widodo ?

Likely Voters

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

59%

59%

Joko Widodo

37%

38%

No opinion

4%

3%

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Prabowo Subianto  is handling his job as president?

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

Prabowo Subianto

71%

19%

10%

13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joko Widodo   is handling his job as president?

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

Joko Widodo

51%

36%

13%

14. How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today — as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?

very good

somewhat good

somewhat poor

very poor

No opinion

Total

good

Total

poor

34%

26%

13%

10%

7%

60%

23%

15. NowImgoing to mentiona fewissuesandfor each one after debate ,please tellmeif youthinkPrabowo Subianto or Joko Widodo  wouldbetterhandlethat issue ifthey were electedPresident.  (RANDOM

a. The economy

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

50%

49%

1%

June.25-27, 2014

52%

43%

5%

June.28-30, 2014

53%

41%

6%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

49%

44%

7%

June.25-27, 2014

53%

41%

6%

June.28-30, 2014

55%

40%

5%

 

 

b.Foreignpolicy

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

52%

44%

4%

June.25-27, 2014

54%

42%

4%

June.28-30, 2014

56%

41%

3%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

53%

43%

4%

June.25-27, 2014

54%

41%

5%

June.28-30, 2014

55%

39%

6%

c.Medicare

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

50%

46%

4%

June.25-27, 2014

51%

48%

1%

June.28-30, 2014

51%

48%

1%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

54%

44%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

55%

42%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

56%

42%

2%

d.Utilized of The State Budget

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

54%

40%

4%

June.25-27, 2014

56%

38%

6%

June.28-30, 2014

58%

40%

2%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

54%

43%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

55%

42%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

59%

40%

1%

e.Utilized and Protection of National Asset for Indonesia Economy

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

54%

40%

4%

June.25-27, 2014

60%

36%

4%

June.28-30, 2014

61%

34%

3%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

54%

43%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

57%

40%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

61%

37%

2%

 

f.Healthcare

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

49%

48%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

50%

49%

1%

June.28-30, 2014

52%

41%

7%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

49%

49%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

50%

48%

2%

June.28-30, 2014

50%

49%

1%

g.Education

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

49%

48%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

50%

49%

1%

June.28-30, 2014

52%

41%

7%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

49%

49%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

52%

46%

2%

June.28-30, 2014

55%

44%

1%

h.National Food Security

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

59%

38%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

62%

35%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

64%

30%

6%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

61%

37%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

64%

28%

8%

June.28-30, 2014

67%

29%

4%

 

j.Unemployment

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

60%

38%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

64%

34%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

65%

30%

5%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

65%

33%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

65%

34%

1%

June.28-30, 2014

67%

30%

3%

h.Mortgageand housing issues

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

59%

38%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

62%

35%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

64%

30%

6%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

61%

37%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

64%

28%

8%

June.28-30, 2014

67%

29%

4%

i.Stability of national security

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

68%

28%

4%

June.25-27, 2014

69%

26%

5%

June.28-30, 2014

70%

26%

4%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

71%

34%

5%

June.25-27, 2014

74%

25%

1%

June.28-30, 2014

75%

23%

2%

 

j.investment from domestic and foreign

LikelyVoters

 

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

59%

38%

3%

June.25-27, 2014

62%

35%

3%

June.28-30, 2014

64%

30%

6%

Registereds voters

Prabowo Subianto

Joko Widodo

No opinion

June.21-24, 2014

61%

37%

2%

June.25-27, 2014

64%

28%

8%

June.28-30, 2014

67%

29%

4%

16. All this month campaigning has focused on  swing voters and the race concludes with each candidate holding equally strong advantages with one gender and closely matched in support by party identification. Joko Widodo a 10-percentage point lost among men, 43% to 53%, while Prabowo is winning by nearly the same margin, 52% to 44%, among women. The two are roughly tied among independents — 46% favor Prabowo and 42% Joko . Each candidate has support of his Coalition  party, with 66% of backing Joko Widodo  and 83% of Prabowo Coalition Party supporting Prabowo Subianto

Electability favor of Prabowo-Hatta and Joko Widodo Jusup Kala  Base of Demography voters

Voters

PrabowoSubianto/     Hatta Rajasa

Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala

No Opinion

 

%

%

%

Men

53

43

4

Women

52

44

4

 

18 to 29 years

57

38

5

30 to 49 years

49

50

1

50 to 64years

51

45

4

64  to olders

56

37

7

Voters

PrabowoSubianto/     Hatta Rajasa

Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala

No Opinion

Jawa

51

45

4

Sunda

65

27

8

Melayu

65

26

9

Batak

45

53

2

Padang

56

38

6

Madura

66

25

9

Tionghoa

43

47

10

Bali

56

41

3

Bugis

49

47

4

Makasar

51

46

3

Dayak

52

44

4

Aceh

62

36

2

Lainya

56

42

2

Voters

PrabowoSubianto/     Hatta Rajasa

Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala

No Opinion

Sumatera Region

58

39

3

Jawa Region

54

43

3

Kalimantan Region

51

47

2

Sulawesi Region

51

45

4

NTB /Bali Region

62

39

9

Papua/Maluku Region

61

32

7

Voters

PrabowoSubianto/     Hatta Rajasa

Joko Widodo/ Jusup Kala

No Opinion

Islam

62

36

2

Christian Protestan

43

52

5

Rome Chatolik

51

40

9

Budhis

54

39

7

Hindu

57

39

4

Lainya

54

39

7

 

Elementery School

50

45

5

Middle school

54

40

6

High School

56

38

4

Bachelor

57

32

1

Post Graduate-

60

36

4

 

GERINDRA Coalition

83

4

13

PDIP Coalition

12

66

22

Independent

46

42

12

 

By Weber Davis

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