A wide circle of observers for the conflict between the authority of Luhansk pseudo-republic, which consists in Igor Cornet dismissal from the position of the “Minister of the Internal Affairs” of so-called LPR by Igor Plotnitsky and the disavowal of the latter to recognize it (resulting in a military confrontation in the center of Luhansk), seeks to find out some explanation for these events, to determine their causes and to predict results, more precisely, to predict who of the two Igor will win. But in fact all this does not matter. The events, steps and statements of the main and secondary players accompanying the said conflict (especially the Luhansk militants appeal to Alexander Zakharchenko to unite the LPR and the DPR under his leadership, and Mr. Zatulin statement that such union is absolutely logical) may indicate that Russia could orchestrate this situation, or at least predicted it (the probability of such situation has been boiling up all these years) and had long ago developed scenarios of its actions, as well as it was in winter 2014. That was the case of Viktor Yanukovych’s failure to manage the crisis on Ukrainian Maidan.
The truth is that, due to the diplomatic efforts of Kiеv and Western Allies, the resolution of the Donbass problem in a format related to the Minsk agreements implementation and possible deployment of non-Russian peacekeepers and return of control over the border area in no way satisfies Moscow. So it is necessary either to leave apart the Minsk peace process, or to “reshape” it. That’s why a crisis at the LPR top brass was so needed. Now in conditions when all necessary steps have been taken under the plan developed by Lubyanka, and in the absence of radio and television for some period, the situation will “freeze up” to allow analyzing the external reaction that in turn will allow deciding on the scenario of further development. The name of winner (among two Igor) depends on it.
In the case of I. Plotnitsky retirement from the stage as one of the signatories of the Minsk agreements, they (the agreements) will lose their legitimacy and, therefore it is necessary to choose new formats. If within the framework of new formats the ways of solution of the Donbass problem do not again satisfy the Russian side, the separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions can be united under the leadership of A. Zakharchenko, who is also a signatory of the Minsk agreements, and therefore it is possible to return to this format. Although the subject is different (not separate LPR and DPR, but the united Novorossiya), the agreements should be different – and you will receive Minsk III. And then they possibly will insist on conditions, which Kiev will never agree. The agreements will fail, which means the Kremlin will try to push the separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions into Ukraine in its present condition (and even worse) and will talk to its Western partners on its peacekeeping mission for ungrateful Ukrainians.