March 29, 2024

On April 23 a phone conversation of Belarusian and Lithuanian presidents took place. Among many topics of agenda the issue of construction of Belarusian nuclear power plant was discussed. The president of Republic of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda admitted that Lithuania cannot accept the project of Minsk on construction of the nuclear power plant in close proximity to the Belarusian-Lithuanian border and this position of Lithuania remains constant.
The issue of construction of nuclear power plant in Belarus has never been only the internal question of development of Belarusian energy system. It is well known that Astravets Nuclear Power Plant is being constructed by Russian employees using the credit money allocated by Russia to official Minsk. This project was one among many others considered by Russia and the single project, which is almost finished.
For this project Russia has granted to Belarus a credit of 10 billion dollars with low interest rate and long repayment terms (since 2021 to 2036), which were rescheduled due to the terms of construction delayed by Russian party.
It is obvious that so lucrative credit granted by Russia to Belarus is not relief effort. Kremlin uses construction of the project to increase political dependence of Belarus and presence of Russian business in Belarus. If Belarus is unable to pay the credit, Kremlin still will win: Belarusian nuclear power plant will be under total control of the Russian party and therefore it will become another instrument to influence Belarus.
In this case Russia achieves double profit: to implement a dangerous project in the region, but in the territory of another country and to get cheap energy, which can be disposed of by Russia. Apart from many years of credit payments, Minsk will be dependent on the supplies of Russian nuclear fuel and components for nuclear power plant units. It is obvious that maintenance of the equipment supplied for the nuclear power plant will be provided by Russian employees.
It means that the Russian Federation may get another lever to pressure Belarus as technological cycle of nuclear power plant will be under control of “Rosatom”. It is highly unlikely that Belarusian nuclear power plant will ever become profitable, it is clear that its production cannot be exported abroad (it is clear for all except for those officials who took the decision to construct the nuclear power plant). Only Russia can buy cheap Belarusian energy, though it does not need it.
The implementation of the project bears essential political risks. The construction of nuclear power plant will complicate the relations of Belarus and the West, and Minsk will stay alone with Moscow.
In 2017 Lithuanian government adopted a Law on Necessary Measures against “Threats Posed by Unsafe Nuclear Power Plants in Third Countries.” It can be fully understood – Vilnius, the capital city of Lithuania, is nearest city to the future nuclear power plant.
Lithuanian position is that Astravets Nuclear Power Plant is a menace to the world security and environmental safety of region. Lithuania has already made great efforts to persuade EU partners and European institutions, that leave slight chances to sign partnership priorities agreement between the European Union and Republic of Belarus. It is obvious that neither Lithuania, nor any other countries of the EU will agree to buy the energy, produced by the nuclear power plant which is being constructed with no attention to their point of view.
We have to ask the question: qui prodest – who is to profit from it? It is profit for Russia, and official Moscow barely denies it. In the time the creation of the Union State has failed and the relations between Moscow and Minsk worsened, Russia definitely can use inter-State economic projects to increase dependence of Belarus on Russia and use these factors during the future political negotiations.
Likewise, the world pandemic makes Kremlin to speed up using all instruments to influence Minsk. Negative oil prices and as consequence poverty of Russian people may make Kremlin to act much more rapidly.
Due to unfriendly policy of Russia towards Belarus it is extremely important for Belarus’ independence to start up negotiations with Republic of Lithuania. At least Lithuania and its European partners should have access to the construction of Belarusian nuclear power plant to check the quality and security of construction process – it is a question of environmental security for the whole Baltic region, there must be no secrets in it.
It is very likely that Lithuania may soften its position towards Belarusian nuclear power plant if the joint team of experts is created with the main aim to observe the operation of the nuclear power plant and if Lithuania is given discounts for the energy, generated by the Belarusian nuclear power plant.
To save its sovereignty – either energetic or state sovereignty – negotiations with Lithuania and the EU is one of the requirements for saving balance in the region. Belarus may rely on united Europe and its help to oppose Russian expansion.

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