Category: Government & Politics

“All is fair in love and war”, as the proverb says. Let’s leave aside love and turn regard on war. Modern wars increasingly often find the battlefield in the economic, diplomatic, religious and other spheres. Even ecology is not an exception for confrontation. However, let’s start from pre-history.

The diplomatic scandal around the ethnic population of the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine and their rights has been smoldering for a long time between Ukraine and Hungary, particularly the cn nationalists led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Recently it became known that the Hungarian consulate issues in secret their national passports to the Ukrainian citizens. Naturally, such actions were condemned by the European institutions and the leading states. In response, the Hungarian side repaired to play on ecological safety of Europe.

River Tysa, which is one of the largest inflows of Danube, originates in Ukraine and before falling into Danube goes through several countries including Hungary. Hungarian defenders suddenly took care of the water condition originating from the Ukrainian territory. They found huge amount of heavy metals, harmful chemistry and household waste, in particular plastic bottles there. That’s why it became a new stumbling block in Ukraine-Hungary relations.

Today main ‘accuser’ of Ukraine is Hungarian eco-activist Gergely Hankó. He was also among organizers of unusual performance: making boats and canoe from the bottles fished out of the river and rafting down the river on them. The future of these “means of swimming” is unknown, possibly, they continue poisoning river banks in a more structured form.

The main Mr. Hankó’s argument against Ukraine is a case of spring, 2015, when a large volume of garbage fell into the river in consequence of heavy floods. The Hungarian part restricted themselves to recording the event and taking many shots of dirty river while they turned on the HPP taps and made garbage a problem of their neighbors. At the same time, both Ukrainian and Romanian experts reported about no registered fact of cross-border pollution of the river basin.

We can’t say for sure whether Mr. Hankó’s activity has strictly mercantile features. Possibly, that is manifestation of his altruistic nature, and he really bother about river condition. However, the actions of Hungarian government are by no means altruistic. They have their own goals, the main among which is to retain power. To this end, they use such drastic measures as issuing Hungarian passports to Ukrainians with a view to draw national minorities as their main electorate in advance of upcoming elections. For the same purpose, they make advances to nationalists and are ready to confront the whole Europe and NATO.

Frankly speaking, Ukraine and Hungary are on the brink of mutual expulsion of diplomats that is a very serious step. However, position of Hungarian part in this conflict is the most unflattering, due to propaganda of the nationalist ideas, confrontation with other states, and many other facts. Here tame “ecologist” is needed, he will tell how Ukraine poisons the European rivers and why it is impossible to conduct constructive dialogue with them as their authorities don’t care about citizens of other states. By the way, ideas of ecological safety in Europe advert more and more supporters.

It’s too prematurely to give forecasts as to the end of this confrontation. Most probably, the Hungarian government relies on the support of Russia and their allies in Europe, therefore behaves so aggressively. The main thing the European politicians may assure today is prevent making them fool by high-minded statements, which disguise quite mercenary incentives.

Read More

Modern world experiences a very difficult period of economic cataclysms, geopolitical and military conflicts, breach of international treaties, and post-war transformations in Europe. In this atmosphere of mistrust, contradictions and political pressure any economic project should be estimated comprehensively and giving due account to all positive and negative sides. Today the Nord Stream 2 project is the most contradictory both in economic and political dimensions. It provides a new weapon which by design, image and likeness may be compared to the well-known group of Trojan viruses. This malicious program cause harm to the target computer systems. It appears to be a useful software at first glance, though it will do damage once installed to your computer. Whether this program would be more or less aggressive depends directly on intention of its author. Well, we may say that the Nord Stream 2 is of the same poisonous for the European safety! It may legitimately penetrate into Europe, and, unfortunately, involves far-reaching harmful geopolitical consequences. Non-exhaustive list of possible malicious effects of this project within the integral system of the European community you may see below.

· Construction of the gas pipeline by Russia undermines collective energy supply security of Europe. It will divide Europe making a part of the EU countries dependent on the Russian energy resources to such an extent that Eastern and Southeast Europe will find themselves in power isolation. Implementation of the project will increase the Russian share in German gas market to above 50% enabling Kremlin to strengthen the pressure upon US allies within the European states through traditional tactics of manipulations with gas supply. Even today German support of gas pipeline construction gives Russia confidence in lack of unity within the EU as well as in high bribability and corruptibility of Western states.

· The Nord Stream 2 project violates provisions of The European Union’s Third Energy Package governing reduction of monopoly in gas and energy supplies. The competitiveness of EU suppliers of energy carriers has been threatened. At the same time Russia considers the Nord Stream 2 as a tool for counteraction to development of the EU power policy. Besides it, they expect to create strong prerequisites for strengthening contradictions between those states consuming and those transiting natural gas to Europe.

· The project is designed to level down position of the Ukrainian gas transmission network in delivery of the Russian natural gas to the West, while its elimination from transportation of the Russian natural gas to EU states will cause serious turbulence in stability of deliveries. In addition, the Nord Stream 2 will definitely give Moscow a free hand which annexed Crimea and occupied a part of Donbass right after construction of the first stage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline. The threat of further escalation of conflict in the region, or, even worse, of creating the new flash points of military conflicts in Europe will increase!

· The Nord Stream 2 will by no means promote diversification of gas supply to the European Union and will not provide access to the new gas sources.

· The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline may exert only negative impact on ecosystem of the Baltic Sea.

· Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will unambiguously lead to increase in military presence of Russia on the Baltic Sea. This would be a threat for Europe – the gas pipeline will expand possibilities of Russian espionage actions which they currently deliver in the European states.

It is unlikely that the above arguments of harmfulness of the Nord Stream 2 project are unknown to the European establishment and EU officials of the European Union. Probably, they are well-known, and many of them do not approve intention of Germany towards its implementation.

In their turn, Russia seek promotion of the Nord Stream 2 project at the EU level frankly intimidating officials with expansion of a large-scale internal crisis in the European Union through levelling the interests of certain EU vanguard states. Nevertheless, the gas pipeline is unprofitable to the German business as well, since it challenges the whole Third Energy Package. However, if Germany opposes its construction, Mr. Putin will be very dissatisfied, which is apparently unfavorable situation for Germany. Well, probably the time came to take courage and apply the anti-virus program?

Read More

As “Süddeutsche Zeitung” wrote, Vladimir Putin had assured the chancellor Angela Merkel that in case of need, Russia, from its own resources, would be ready to finance the construction of “Nord Stream 2”. At the same time counteraction to construction of the second branch of the gas pipeline on the ground of the Baltic Sea is one of fundamentals of the Polish foreign policy. And it is natural. Each serious buyer (and not only of gas) shall have alternative channels of supply.

However, it is worth asking a question: who “in fight for “Nord Stream 2” has more problems: Poland diversifying its procurement or Russia for which it becomes more and more difficult to earn from hydrocarbons from year to year. Let’s compare a situation with the Russian export of wheat. Now Russia is its largest exporter in the world. Its export has increased – in quantitative expression – by 36%. However, if we take into account export cost, it decreased by 1,8%. It means that Russia sells more and more, but the Russian growers earn from export less and less. If more precisely, the state pays extra for export, for example, at the expense of subsidies for transportation and also builds additional storages. We may see a situation which economists call inefficient investments.

Gas is not wheat, but the principle of inefficient investments remains the same. Let’s consider, for example, the Russian “Gazprom”. Recently there was 25 years from the moment of its creation. Russians analyze a way passed by the corporation for these years. Conclusions are not optimistically at all. Notwithstanding the fact that for the last 18 years the Russian economy has received from hydrocarbons export an astronomical amount of 3,5 trillion dollars, its dependence on oil and gas export has not decreased, but increased. In 2000 the share of hydrocarbons in export made 52%. In 2017 this figure was 55%.

It means that the federal budget of the Russian Federation depends on export of hydrocarbons more and more. In 2000, the budget received 25% of income, now – 40%. Of course, a problem is not in percentage, but in the amount of revenues. There are no doubts that as a result of an oil boom Russia had much more money. But it, contrary to statements of the Russian politicians, did not create alternative sources of replenishment of the budget in better days. They have not prepared for the worst times in the event of prices or demand for the Russian gas are much lower. They have not changed economy structurally. It seems that Russia has put everything on one “gas card”.

Long-term plans of “Gazprom” provide stable and significant growth in export in the European market. By 2035, according to analysts of group, production will fall in Europe, and consumption will increase. As a result, purchase by Europeans will increase from current 300-325 BCM of gas up to 393-459 billion. Proceeding from these calculations the Russian giant estimates to put into operation eight new areas of extraction of hydrocarbons in 2027, from which three, located in Eastern Siberia, transfer gas to Asia. The others will make deliveries to Europe.

As the practice of the last years has shown the fact of ownership of the gas pipeline does not mean its use.

The Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline was filled less than 40% till 2016. Later such data were kept a secret. Actually, it was not better in a case of “Nord Stream”: in 2012 – 67% of its capacity were used, in a year – 57%, then 35%, and in 2015 only 29% were hardly used!!! Only in 2016-2017 the pipe was filled almost for 100%.

The situation around the well-known gas agreement with China (there is no in practice) is similar, but nevertheless Russia is building “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline. It is building, paying more and more, but there are no prospects of profit. The consortium on construction of pipelines has 20 years’ tax exemption, and “Gazprom” received similar one but 15 years’ tax exemption. Moreover, the former Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Vladimir Milov reported that the debt of the Russian companies of extraction of hydrocarbons to China has already exceeded 70 billion dollars. Conditions of both credit and commercial contracts are the most carefully protected secrets. According to Mr. Milov, after discover of huge reserves of slate gas in China, Russia will never be able to earn from supplies to China.

There is also other problem. It is difficult to consider “Gazprom” as effectively operated company. If in 1999 the company extracted 546 billion cubic meters of gas a year, then 18 years later this figure decreased up to 472 billion cubic meters while the staff of the company for this period increased from 298 thousand to 467 thousand persons.

In the Russian oppositional circles, the opinion is widespread that the expediency of many projects of “Gazprom” is equal to zero, and it is only about how to make good money on construction of pipelines, stations for gas liquefaction and all other infrastructure. This year it has turned out that construction of “The Turkish stream” will cost one billion US dollars more, than it was estimated, and a land (Russian) part of “Nord Stream-2” has already rose in price for the last three years for 25%. On paper, from the Russians point of view, everything looks perfectly. Expenses on delivery of 1000 cubic meters of the Russian gas to Germany make about 400 euros while liquefaction and delivery of the same volume of the American gas cost 500 euros. The difference is not big, but it may so happen that in the next years it will quickly disappear. And what will be if development of the European market is not such as estimated by “Gazprom”?

Significant increase in a share of renewable energy in power balance of the main buyer and the most important partner of Russia – Germany recorded in the present coalition agreement may become the main reason. The agreement has a paragraph that partners in the coalition will seek to increase volumes to the level of 66% in 2030 (from present 33%). If it occurs, the strategy of “Gazprom” will be undecided. Instead of stable growth there will be the highest level of demand stagnation.

Other factor is Qatar which has recently declared that it wanted to increase gas export from 77 to 100 BCM. It is about the liquefied gas which is generally delivered to Europe. The Polish press has already written tens of articles about plans of export growth of hydrocarbons by producers from the United States. The coast of Cyprus has also new perspective fields, the pipeline from Algeria to Italy and from Morocco to Spain is planned. As a rule, the market of the liquefied gas (LNG) slowly, but becomes the world market, and this tendency cannot be terminated in the long term. If Russia, for credit money (because the second branch is under construction for expensive credits) wants to construct and drown it in the Baltic Sea, let it make. Poland and Europe shall take care of that Russia will sell gas so cheap that all this grandiose action will be unprofitable.

Source: http://serwisy.gazetaprawna.pl/energetyka/artykuly/1282247,nord-stream-2-pozwolmy-mu-zbankrutowac.html

Read More

Once the Roman emperor Vespesian said a catch-phrase “the money has no smell”. Though it concerned taxation of public bathrooms in the Roman Empire, the phrase is still relevant. However, in our time and in our realities the sewage smell was replaced with a gas smell.

Construction of “Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline has remained a debatable issue in German society and political circles for several months. The arguments were produced that this project would be unprofitable and would not be justified even in in the distant future.

For example, in May, Alexander Fek, the analyst of Sberbank-SIB, pointed out that those who would benefit from implementation of the project are not the companies which would serve the gas pipeline, but construction contracting companies – “Stroygazmontazh” and “Stroytransneftegaz”, owned by Russian oligarchs Arkady Rotenberg and Gennady Timchenko respectively, who are president Putin’s old friends and companions. According to the analyst’s report which by the way caused his dismissal, the construction of the access to the sea for the gas pipeline will cost 74,6 billion rubles (about one billion dollars) only, while estimated cost of the whole gas pipeline is 17 billion dollars. The right for the construction was given to “Stroytransneftegaz” company out of the competition.

However, Russia has their own laws and orders. The Russian side generally has rather geopolitical goals than economic interests in this project. The question is, why does the German side is insistently getting involved in such unprofitable project? Evaluation of the allocated resources for this project shows that it may be paid off at least in 25 years, and that is the most promising forecasts and subject to the maximum loads. The answer is simple – corruption is bilateral process and its manifestations may be traced both in Russia and in Germany. Especially when the stake is big money.

To make it more clear let’s get to know closer Matthias Waring who heads “Nord Stream” since 2006. He is also one of the chief lobbyists of “North Stream 2” construction. You may think, what is wrong with it? He is a successful businessman who attempts to increase his capitals by creation of new assets. Except for the fact that these assets will bring profit in a quite distant future. Well, here is something behind it.

It worth noting that figure of Mr.Waring is quite controversial. Let’s begin with the fact that he is the former employee of the Ministry of State Security of the GDR, known as Stasi (1975-1989). At the end of 1989, during his work in Dresden, he got acquainted with Vladimir Putin who served that times in KGB. However, Waring denied his personal contacts with future Russian leader in every possible way until 1991 when Putin became head of the Department of Foreign Policy Communications at St.Petersburg city council. That was Putin who facilitated licensing of BNP-Dresdner Bank’s activity in Russia in 1993.

However, that became a history. As for today, in addition to governing “Nord Stream”, Matthias Waring is a member of the board of directors of a great number of Russian companies. This brings him a good profit – more than 2 million euros a year, plus over 4 million from “Nord Stream”. All the companies in which Waring holds senior positions, are Russian or have a considerable share of the Russian capital. Therefore, he has taken an active part in promoting Russia’s interests in Germany for many years. In return Putin awarded him with an Order of Honour in 2012.

Waring, his activity and his income, both legal and illegal, are only a top of corruption iceberg in the field of distribution of energy resources in the European market. As we have already mentioned, the project is primarily of geopolitical nature for Russia. Moscow attempts to lock up gas supplies to Eastern and Central Europe on themselves in order to dictate their political will. The interest of Germany seems to be even more doubtful, especially in the context of the promise from the USA to impose sanctions against the companies involved in construction. If the Russian government may easily take money from their people upon the pretext of pensionary reform or tax increase to avoid inflicting losses to loyal oligarchs, the question arises, what will the German government do to save in turn their companies?

Read More

Prime minister Viktor Orbán and Fidesz-CDPP party led by him continue exaggerating a narrative of protection of the Hungarian ethnic minorities abroad.
The Hungarian diaspora, and particularly 150-thousand one in Ukraine, is considered by present Hungarian authorities not only as the lever of Budapest’s influence on the neighboring states, but also as a domestic policy factor. Playing this card to a great measure enabled Viktor Orbán to get win this April on the parliamentary elections in Hungary. Today, as far as the government cannot boast of economic achievements and increasing of social standards of living, in times of blanket attacks on peoples’ democratic rights and freedoms, which may entail sanctions from the EU, exploitation of the populist idea of the protection of rights of fellow nationals abroad is aimed at people’s distraction from internal problems by means of developing the image of Hungary’s enemy. Speaking about supposed oppressions of Hungarians abroad, the authorities try to play upon patriotic heart strings of their nationals and urge them to fight for the rights of fellow nationals abroad under their command. That is the manner of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, who became a role model for Orbán.
Aggressive rhetoric and rough pressure upon neighbors became the landmark of present Hungarian authorities. And now it is a turn of Ukraine to fall under virulent abuse after Slovakia and Romania. Recently we have witnessed another aggravation between Hungary and Ukraine regarding the so-called passport issue (previously they were inflicted by the language paragraph of the Law of Ukraine “On Education” and appointment of the “authorized minister” by Hungary, who should be responsible for the development of the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine – i.e. the territory belonging to other state).
Wide-scale hidden pasportization of Hungarians from among Ukrainian citizens was given a long-awaited publicity following YouTube video on delivery of the Hungarian passports to citizens of Ukraine in the Hungarian consulate in Berehovo (Transcarpathian region of Ukraine).
Instead of extinguishing the conflict in response to the justified demands from Ukraine to cease outraged violations of Ukrainian laws (the dual citizenship is forbidden in Ukraine) Budapest decided to heighten tensions. Foreign Minister of Hungary Peter Siyarto accused the Ukrainian party of fostering anti-Hungarian spirits in society, considered video lawful and threatened to slow down European integration of Ukraine (earlier Viktor Orbán’s cabinet has already blocked a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission). Such a response confirms once again Hungary’s abuse of membership in EU and NATO. Moreover, through their nonconstructive behavior Hungarian authorities try to involve the above-mentioned organizations in the conflict with Ukraine.
Inflating the farfetched problem of oppression of Transcarpathian Hungarians by Ukraine, Viktor Orbán and his office pursue distraction of attention of their nationals from miscalculations in policy towards foreign Hungarians.
The actual situation strongly differs from what Budapest wishes to present. Having relied on “soft power”, and actually – on bribery of Transcarpathian Hungarians, the government (which promotes programs of small business funding, education exceptionally in Hungarian, construction of infrastructure and community facilities) reckons on loyalty of local community on future elections and holding ethnic Hungarians of Transcarpathia within the present territory of accommodation.
However, having squandered tens of millions state budget euros for the last years Budapest has not obtained desirable effect. On the contrary, the main result of such PR-policy was critical reduction of Hungarian population in Ukraine, at the same time the rest were marginalized.
After they had received the Hungarian passports, Hungarians of Transcarpathia (by the way, people of active age, who obtained profession and education), moved to Hungary. However, by no means all of them remained in Hungary, a great part moved from European, but nonetheless poor country, to more successful countries of the European Union.
Reduction of a number of ethnic Hungarians (not only in the Transcarpathian region of Ukraine, but also in other neighboring states) called into question claims of Budapest and intention of Viсtor Orban’s government to fight for strengthening of the Hungarian influence. Thus, there is no recourse for present Hungarian authorities in their attempt to avoid the responsibility for aftermaths of their populist policy towards the Hungarian ethnic minority as an element of domestic policy, but to strengthen the aggressive radical rhetoric promoting reinforcement of xenophobic spirits in the Hungarian society and to resort to frankly unfriendly actions in relation to Ukraine in the EU and NATO.

Read More

Prior to parliamentary elections of 2018, the Fidesz Party led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán competed with Jobbik Party in erecting as many monuments as possible to dictator Horthy (who supported the union with Germany during the WWII and occupied the Carpathian Ukraine in 1939). Those Hungarians having dual citizenship and living abroad received the letters in the name of Mr. Orbán calling them to register on the voting Internet platform “to determine the fate and the future of the states of the Carpathian basin”.

It seems that votes of the Transcarpathian Hungarians who keep Ukrainian, Hungarian, and sometimes even Russian passports in one drawer are rather valuable for ruling Hungarian Fidesz party. Viktor Orbán and his colleagues are ready to give budgetary support to a great many of public organizations or scientific institutions, not only Transcarpathian, against these votes.

These two forces still compete to turn citizens of Ukraine of the Hungarian origin into their additional resource in political struggle for the power. The present Prime Minister uses an issue of Transcarpathian Hungarians to maintain rating, being afraid of opponents from Jobbik to seize an initiative. Such support of ruling party by foreign Hungarians is very generously funded from the state budget, which in turn attracts financing from the EU budget.

Funds allocated for the support of some Hungarian organizations in Ukraine show that Fidesz knows well enough the importance of “buying” sympathies of foreign Hungarians. In particular, the government Resolution of 27.12.2017 No. 2061 “On Allocation of Grants to Some Foreign Organizations” in support of programs and activity of the foreign Hungarian organizations provides for the lump sum of 33,4 billion forints (above 103 billion euro). The major part of it – 2,54 billion forints (above 7 billion euro) would be assigned to support the Hungarian organizations of Transcarpathia. Hence Transcarpathia Hungarian Institute charity foundation received 2,2 billion forints (about 6,7 billion euro), while Society of the Hungarian Culture of Transcarpathia – 340 million forints (above 1 billion euro). In addition, in 2018 Budapest allocated 1 billion forints (about 3 billion euro) for implementation of “2018 – Year of Foreign Hungarian Families” program that provides support for the enterprises, healthcare institutions, trainings and organization of camps.

In chase of foreign electorate Fidesz representatives resort even to more interesting innovations. For example, the government of Hungary adopted a Resolution of 02.01.18 No. 457 amending the Law XLV of 1994 “On military care” that entitles the foreign Hungarians including those living in Transcarpathia to compensations for relatives of the Hungarian servicemen who were seriously injured or died, particularly during the WWII.

In this context, the prerequisites to be met by foreign Hungarians to receive additional funds from the Hungarian budget are more than illustrative! Compensation claimants are actually required to prove that their immediate family (spouses, parents, brothers) served in Royal Hungarian Army and died during military operations – from March, 1939 to October, 1944 (during the Hungarian occupation of Transcarpathia). This means they shall find and bring to the Hungarian consulates in the territory of Ukraine quite controversial documents proving that their relatives served in the Hungarian army, which not only waged a war on the side of fascist Germany, occupied the Ukrainian lands, but also became famous for their brutal treatment of Ukrainians in occupied territories. Applications for compensation shall be served to Hungary consulates in Uzhhorod and Beregovo. The only document you require is certificate of the foreign Hungarian. In this case, you may be granted a monthly pension that is 30% of the minimum Hungarian pension.

All these facts show that, expressing such generosity to Hungarians of Transcarpathia and buying their votes, Orbán’s government does not hesitate to boost the coffers at the expense of EU budget. Taking into account “grants” to the Hungarian diaspora, the European taxpayer helps Viktor Orbán to stay in power and pays his populism.

In his turn, Viktor Orbán aptly uses EU democratic institutes in his mercenary interests. He does not hesitate to manipulate the issues, which are sensitive for the European Union, for example, migrant situation, makes advances to Russia, opposing prolongation of sanctions, and puts pressure upon Ukraine, putting on the stake progress rate of their EU and NATO accession. Perhaps in such a manner he wants to draw attention of the power players and escape political isolation.

Read More

On September 17, the Russian Defense Ministry presented a new version of Boeing MH17 accident cause brought down by the pro-Russian fighters in the sky over Donbass in 2014. According to new information of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Malaysian plane was shot down by the Ukrainian rocket.

Comments were prompt. Independent European and American experts flayed ill-starred reporters of the Russian Defense Ministry.

In addition, Eliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, gave his comment on it, having called a new version of Russians “the act of despair”. He expressed opinion that “the new truth” of the Russian Ministry of Defense would hardly influence judges and once again confirmed indisputability of the Russian military involvement to the crash of MH17.

The statement of the Russian Defense Ministry appeared on the threshold of the UNGA meeting where results of Malaysian Boeing crash investigation had to become one of the main topics for discussion. Apparently, Kremlin falls into despair understanding inevitability of Hague Tribunal.

In fact, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has nothing but to present new and new versions about the Ukrainian trace, allegedly forged photos of the Buk missile system, and contradictory origin of the missile launched from it.

Nevertheless, all efforts of the Russian military fantasts are vain. Results of Bellingcat investigations and the official joint investigation team (JIT) clearly indicate that both the Buk and the missile launched from it were of the Russian origin. Prosecutor’s offices of the Netherlands and Australia have prepared the evidentiary base confirming that the missiles elements which struck the Malaysian plane in accuracy coincide with elements of a military unit of the Russian antiaircraft missile 9M38M1 – the Buk-M1-2.

This time the Russian Defense Ministry based its version on “research” of the fragments of a missile found on the scene. At the same time and there was a question left without explanation, why in due time the Joint investigation team did not receive the similar answer on the request, addressed to Russia, for origin of a rocket.

According to Mr. Higgins, nobody perceives in seriousness the versions of Boeing MH17 crash periodically disseminated by Russia. All have already got used that it is impossible to trust any information distributed by the Russian Defense Ministry as in the past it was often caught on lies and providing fabricated “proofs”.

The British expert is categorical that the statements of the Russian Defense Ministry are not only mendacious, but also are not logical. It is obvious that the Russian Defense Ministry is not interested in establishment of the true causes of the accident.

During the briefing, the Russian side said that a missile, which did not leave the territory of Ukraine after 1986, had brought down MH-17. The investigation has incontestable facts confirming that the Buk, which launched a missile at the Boeing MH17, arrived from Russia. So where is logic?

A new lie from Shoygu’s department will cause no more than irritation. Those who seriously take statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense are people who just want to believe that Ukraine is responsible. But the investigation has incontestable proofs that Russia sent the Buk, from which the Boeing MH17 was shot down, to the territory of Ukraine. The lie of Russia that sounds for four years of the investigation will hardly make today desirable effect.

However, this is not the whole story. Trying to cheat all civilized world, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and its proteges has decided to implement one more adventure. After the press conference the duplicating information explosion was made: allegedly the missile launched from the Buk had been delivered by Ukraine to Georgia, and then during war of 2008, taken by Russia and transported to the Russian territory.

Psychological plan is simple. Russians expected that experts and journalists would grasp at this information and would call into question the fact established by the investigation that the Boeing MH17 was hit by the missile 9МЗ8 М1 launched from the Russian Buk, which arrived into the territory of Ukraine from the Russian Kursk.

It is clear to everyone that Russia is just trying to delay investigation. The minister of security and justice of the Netherlands Stef Blok has the same opinion. But in spite of the fact that the Netherlands investigators have already spent a lot of time to exclude any fake versions of Kremlin, the investigation team is ready to check all “proofs” provided by the Russian Defense Ministry just further to avoid charges of bias.

However, in connection with the “new evidence” provided by Russia about allegedly involvement of the Ukrainian side in air crash we may have more serious conclusion… Perhaps Russia really used the Ukrainian missile for the Buk, taken out from Georgia and consciously shot down the foreign plane to defame Ukraine. There is a hope that thanks to the modern technologies and numerous “traces” (photos and videos with geotags) posted in social networks the investigation will have opportunities to establish the truth and to make guilty responsible persons.

Read More

On September 17, the Russian Defense Ministry presented a new version of Boeing MH17 accident cause brought down by the pro-Russian fighters in the sky over Donbass in 2014. According to new information of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Malaysian plane was shot down by the Ukrainian rocket.

Comments were prompt. Independent European and American experts flayed ill-starred reporters of the Russian Defense Ministry.

In addition, Eliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, gave his comment on it, having called a new version of Russians “the act of despair”. He expressed opinion that “the new truth” of the Russian Ministry of Defense would hardly influence judges and once again confirmed indisputability of the Russian military involvement to the crash of MH17.

The statement of the Russian Defense Ministry appeared on the threshold of the UNGA meeting where results of Malaysian Boeing crash investigation had to become one of the main topics for discussion. Apparently, Kremlin falls into despair understanding inevitability of Hague Tribunal.

In fact, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has nothing but to present new and new versions about the Ukrainian trace, allegedly forged photos of the Buk missile system, and contradictory origin of the missile launched from it.

Nevertheless, all efforts of the Russian military fantasts are vain. Results of Bellingcat investigations and the official joint investigation team (JIT) clearly indicate that both the Buk and the missile launched from it were of the Russian origin. Prosecutor’s offices of the Netherlands and Australia have prepared the evidentiary base confirming that the missiles elements which struck the Malaysian plane in accuracy coincide with elements of a military unit of the Russian antiaircraft missile 9M38M1 – the Buk-M1-2.

This time the Russian Defense Ministry based its version on “research” of the fragments of a missile found on the scene. At the same time and there was a question left without explanation, why in due time the Joint investigation team did not receive the similar answer on the request, addressed to Russia, for origin of a rocket.

According to Mr. Higgins, nobody perceives in seriousness the versions of Boeing MH17 crash periodically disseminated by Russia. All have already got used that it is impossible to trust any information distributed by the Russian Defense Ministry as in the past it was often caught on lies and providing fabricated “proofs”.

The British expert is categorical that the statements of the Russian Defense Ministry are not only mendacious, but also are not logical. It is obvious that the Russian Defense Ministry is not interested in establishment of the true causes of the accident.

During the briefing, the Russian side said that a missile, which did not leave the territory of Ukraine after 1986, had brought down MH-17. The investigation has incontestable facts confirming that the Buk, which launched a missile at the Boeing MH17, arrived from Russia. So where is logic?

A new lie from Shoygu’s department will cause no more than irritation. Those who seriously take statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense are people who just want to believe that Ukraine is responsible. But the investigation has incontestable proofs that Russia sent the Buk, from which the Boeing MH17 was shot down, to the territory of Ukraine. The lie of Russia that sounds for four years of the investigation will hardly make today desirable effect.

However, this is not the whole story. Trying to cheat all civilized world, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and its proteges has decided to implement one more adventure. After the press conference the duplicating information explosion was made: allegedly the missile launched from the Buk had been delivered by Ukraine to Georgia, and then during war of 2008, taken by Russia and transported to the Russian territory.

Psychological plan is simple. Russians expected that experts and journalists would grasp at this information and would call into question the fact established by the investigation that the Boeing MH17 was hit by the missile 9МЗ8 М1 launched from the Russian Buk, which arrived into the territory of Ukraine from the Russian Kursk.

It is clear to everyone that Russia is just trying to delay investigation. The minister of security and justice of the Netherlands Stef Blok has the same opinion. But in spite of the fact that the Netherlands investigators have already spent a lot of time to exclude any fake versions of Kremlin, the investigation team is ready to check all “proofs” provided by the Russian Defense Ministry just further to avoid charges of bias.

However, in connection with the “new evidence” provided by Russia about allegedly involvement of the Ukrainian side in air crash we may have more serious conclusion… Perhaps Russia really used the Ukrainian missile for the Buk, taken out from Georgia and consciously shot down the foreign plane to defame Ukraine. There is a hope that thanks to the modern technologies and numerous “traces” (photos and videos with geotags) posted in social networks the investigation will have opportunities to establish the truth and to make guilty responsible persons.

Read More

On September 17, the Russian Defense Ministry presented a new version of Boeing MH17 accident cause brought down by the pro-Russian fighters in the sky over Donbass in 2014. According to new information of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Malaysian plane was shot down by the Ukrainian rocket.

Comments were prompt. Independent European and American experts flayed ill-starred reporters of the Russian Defense Ministry.

In addition, Eliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, gave his comment on it, having called a new version of Russians “the act of despair”. He expressed opinion that “the new truth” of the Russian Ministry of Defense would hardly influence judges and once again confirmed indisputability of the Russian military involvement to the crash of MH17.

The statement of the Russian Defense Ministry appeared on the threshold of the UNGA meeting where results of Malaysian Boeing crash investigation had to become one of the main topics for discussion. Apparently, Kremlin falls into despair understanding inevitability of Hague Tribunal.

In fact, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has nothing but to present new and new versions about the Ukrainian trace, allegedly forged photos of the Buk missile system, and contradictory origin of the missile launched from it.

Nevertheless, all efforts of the Russian military fantasts are vain. Results of Bellingcat investigations and the official joint investigation team (JIT) clearly indicate that both the Buk and the missile launched from it were of the Russian origin. Prosecutor’s offices of the Netherlands and Australia have prepared the evidentiary base confirming that the missiles elements which struck the Malaysian plane in accuracy coincide with elements of a military unit of the Russian antiaircraft missile 9M38M1 – the Buk-M1-2.

This time the Russian Defense Ministry based its version on “research” of the fragments of a missile found on the scene. At the same time and there was a question left without explanation, why in due time the Joint investigation team did not receive the similar answer on the request, addressed to Russia, for origin of a rocket.

According to Mr. Higgins, nobody perceives in seriousness the versions of Boeing MH17 crash periodically disseminated by Russia. All have already got used that it is impossible to trust any information distributed by the Russian Defense Ministry as in the past it was often caught on lies and providing fabricated “proofs”.

The British expert is categorical that the statements of the Russian Defense Ministry are not only mendacious, but also are not logical. It is obvious that the Russian Defense Ministry is not interested in establishment of the true causes of the accident.

During the briefing, the Russian side said that a missile, which did not leave the territory of Ukraine after 1986, had brought down MH-17. The investigation has incontestable facts confirming that the Buk, which launched a missile at the Boeing MH17, arrived from Russia. So where is logic?

A new lie from Shoygu’s department will cause no more than irritation. Those who seriously take statements of the Russian Ministry of Defense are people who just want to believe that Ukraine is responsible. But the investigation has incontestable proofs that Russia sent the Buk, from which the Boeing MH17 was shot down, to the territory of Ukraine. The lie of Russia that sounds for four years of the investigation will hardly make today desirable effect.

However, this is not the whole story. Trying to cheat all civilized world, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation and its proteges has decided to implement one more adventure. After the press conference the duplicating information explosion was made: allegedly the missile launched from the Buk had been delivered by Ukraine to Georgia, and then during war of 2008, taken by Russia and transported to the Russian territory.

Psychological plan is simple. Russians expected that experts and journalists would grasp at this information and would call into question the fact established by the investigation that the Boeing MH17 was hit by the missile 9МЗ8 М1 launched from the Russian Buk, which arrived into the territory of Ukraine from the Russian Kursk.

It is clear to everyone that Russia is just trying to delay investigation. The minister of security and justice of the Netherlands Stef Blok has the same opinion. But in spite of the fact that the Netherlands investigators have already spent a lot of time to exclude any fake versions of Kremlin, the investigation team is ready to check all “proofs” provided by the Russian Defense Ministry just further to avoid charges of bias.

However, in connection with the “new evidence” provided by Russia about allegedly involvement of the Ukrainian side in air crash we may have more serious conclusion… Perhaps Russia really used the Ukrainian missile for the Buk, taken out from Georgia and consciously shot down the foreign plane to defame Ukraine. There is a hope that thanks to the modern technologies and numerous “traces” (photos and videos with geotags) posted in social networks the investigation will have opportunities to establish the truth and to make guilty responsible persons.

Read More

Approximately this time 79 years ago German dictator Adolf Hitler and his Soviet associate Joseph Stalin divided Poland. The “Axis” states at that time have already occupied Albania, Ethiopia, Czechoslovakia and Austria. A part of the European states, particularly Hungary, became the allies of Hitlerite expansion voluntarily. Those days’ Hungarian governor, admiral Miklós Horthy, as a token of gratitude to his German allies became one of the promoters of a large-scale slaughter on the European continent that resulted in joint invasion into Yugoslavia with Hitler in April 1941. Well, owing to Germany’s intervention and by force of the 1938 Vienna arbitration Hungary received a part of Slovakia and the Transcarpathian Ukraine – it is worth the gratitude.

One would ask, what is the purpose of this historical insight? The thing is today we may witness another revanchism ideas propagation in the Central Europe. One of its driving forces is Hungary led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Skillful speculations in the ideas of an expansive imperialism enabled Mr. Orbán to hold the highest post in the state repeatedly after defeat in 2002 when he aspired to concentrate the main levers for controlling economy. In 2010 Fidezs party and their allies got majority in parliament and immediately proceeded to the constitutional reforms. They started clericalisation of the state, forbade abortions and same-sex marriages, adopted a number of laws which complicated life to Gipsies. In their actions the party in power could even surpass sometimes confirmed nationalists such as Jobbik party. On the back of such spirits a national holiday was declared on 4 June – “National Unity Day” commemorating the Treaty of Trianon of 1920. That time Hungary lost a considerable part of their lands, which passed to neighboring states. After Orbán’s come back to power, the state officially changed its name. Now it is called Hungary instead of “the Hungarian Republic” which means that the Hungarian community unites not only the Hungarians living within the territory of the state, but also those behind its borders.

Regardless of his pro-Hungarian nationalist spirit, Viktor Orbán is nevertheless an ordinary goopy politician and officer. Supported by his environment he speculates in revanchist anti-European ideas prevailing in the Hungarian society. When there is no bread, people should be given circuses. Hence, Mr. Orbán juggles with the ideas of “Great Hungary” and reunion of split nation. In 2009, addressing ethnic Hungarians in Slovakia, he called them state-building community, humiliating thereby Slovaks. As a matter of a fact, you should not expect crossing the border of some of the adjacent states and proceeding to its conquest by Hungarian troops tomorrow or in a week. Currently the confrontation is taking place on the diplomatic level.

Today the Hungarian government chose the weakest neighbor as the victim of “expansion” – Ukraine that has been resisting to Russia’s invasion in their eastern regions for nearly five years. Meanwhile the Hungarian government issues the passports to residents of Transcarpathian (Zakarpattya) region of Ukraine under the seal of secrecy that is quite indicative fact. The recent one is the case of Beregovo city, which even compelled the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to expel the Hungarian consul from there. However, the territory is a little interesting to Hungarians, who are interested in people. The economic situation in Hungary is far from being perfect. High prices and low wages force Hungarians to look for the employment in neighboring states or to migrate further westwards. Issuing passports to Ukrainians allows at least partially compensate deficiency of manpower. Well, what is wrong about it? Involvement of manpower from neighboring states is not a know-how.

Yet such a policy of “turning a blind eyes” or “appeasement of an aggressor” has already led to a new redraw of the European borders initiated by modern Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in 2014. His messages were quite identical: Crimea annexation – as far as many people have Russian passports there, war in the east of Ukraine – as far as ethnic Russians live there. By the way, Viktor Orbán supports lifting sanctions from Russia imposed in response to their aggressive foreign policy. On the other side, he demands from Ukraine granting more autonomy and rights to the Transcarpathian Hungarians. At the same time, Hungary actively opposes Ukrainian efforts of EU and NATO integration.

We should also point out that Hungary is not the only state with strong anti-European spirits. Having such an example, other states are also highly probable to follow the same way. Thus the whole Europe may fall into mutual recriminations and appeals to revision of frontiers. Do not console yourself with illusory hopes that membership in international organizations such as NATO and EU may somehow interfere with such processes in the majority of the European states. At Horthy times, Hungary was a member of League of Nations, though it did not stop them from the expansion against their neighbors. However, yet in 1942 Horthy realised hopelessness of war and entered into secret negotiations with Allies. Therefore, we may only rely on rational mind of present Hungarian governor and his ability to diminish imperial ambitions under pressure of the European community.

Read More

A new scandal has broken out between Kiev and Budapest.

It may have decisive consequences for the mutual relations, as it touches upon a very sensitive topic for both sides – the issues of obtaining the citizenship and the passport of Hungary.

The modern Hungarian elites, like the Russian ones with their “Russkiy Mir” project, with the help of ethnic Hungarians and pro-Hungarian non-governmental organizations, are trying to revive their regional influence of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, promoting the idea of creating Hungarian autonomies in the territory of other states.

The Hungarian government conducts the most active and aggressive work on the formation of a platform for autonomies in Romania and Ukraine. Officials of the Hungarian state, such as the deputy of the European Parliament and the representative of the Romanian Hungarians, Laszlo Tökös, Hungary’s Ambassador to Ukraine Erno Keskeny or the Hungarian parliamentarian Marton Gengeshi, have repeatedly made statements on the necessity of creating autonomous entities of ethnic Hungarians.

Such “autonomy” policy of Hungary in the Székelyföld of Romania, where about one million of ethnic Hungarians live, and in Transcarpathian region of Ukraine regularly causes diplomatic scandals and political blackmail at the interstate level. Using the state resource and Hungarian public organizations the main objective of Hungary in Ukraine is to obtain actual control over the adjacent territories of Transcarpathian region, covering Berehovsky and Vinogradovsky areas, where the majority of ethnic Hungarians live. This policy is carried out in two main directions: the “passport policy” and the program of economic support for ethnic Hungarians at the expense of the state budget and the budget of public organizations. For the moment, the “passport policy” in Ukraine has ensured the support of ethnic Hungarians in the parliamentary elections of Fidesz Party, which activities have recently been accompanied by increasingly Euro-skeptical sentiments, while its leader, current Prime Minister Viktor Orban, maintains the position of implementation by Ukraine of a double citizenship for the Hungarians and believes that the only deterrent for speeding up the policy of obtaining autonomy in Transcarpathian region is the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

It was the ruling Fidesz Party, after winning the parliamentary elections in 2010, which as its first decisions in parliament, passed amendments to the law on citizenship and introduced a simplified procedure for its obtaining by foreign Hungarians. The law came into force on January 1, 2011.

Such ethnic Hungarians may vote in elections in Hungary not only by party lists, but also for majority candidates. Before the current Hungarian elections, HirTV channel, close to the “Jobbik” party, described how such voters were transported by buses from Transcarpathia to vote in Hungary.

Since then, in the countries of the Carpathian basin there has been an active passport issue for ethnic Hungarians. The most active processes are in Romania and Serbia – more than 400 000 and 114 000 of their citizens respectively, received Hungarian passports as of early 2015. As far as Ukraine is concerned, for the years of passport issue, figures were provided from Budapest only once: as of February 2015, almost 94 000 Transcarpathians obtained Hungarian citizenship under a simplified procedure. Then this information was made public by Árpád János Potápi, responsible for the national policy in the Hungarian government, who is still dealing with the same issue in the fourth Orban’s government. How many Hungarian passports Ukrainians received for the following 3.5 years? There is no data. It is only known that, as of August 2015, 124 000 applications for Hungarian citizenship were received from Ukraine.

In Romania and Serbia, dual or multiple citizenship is officially permitted, but in Ukraine or Slovakia, where half a million Hungarians live – no. And if Slovaks forbid their citizens to receive a Hungarian passport and have a clear procedure of “punishment” for those with a second passport, then in Ukraine the legislation is not so clear.

For many years the issue of dual citizenship of the Hungarians of Ukraine has been a taboo in the dialogue between the two countries. Budapest has systematically issued Hungarian passports to Ukrainian citizens of Hungarian origin, and Kiev, knowing this, only occasionally resented with this fact – but did it nominally without action in return.

But this Wednesday in Youtube there was a video that became a “trigger” of changes. The video, taken by a hidden camera or phone, shows a record of how citizens of Ukraine make fealty to Hungary. The ceremony takes place in Beregovo, in the Hungarian consulate. And in addition, the consul advises to new “double citizens” to hide from the Ukrainian authorities the fact of a passport obtaining.

So what are the real motives of Hungary, when it is so issuing documents abroad?

And what is the most important – what is the best way for actions by Kiev for not to be a looser in matters of national security? We may already state that this process has reached a point where it is unacceptable to ignore the problem.

Especially – after the Youtube video recording, it has become public what many guessed, but did not have clear evidence.

Read More

The hypocrisy is taking over in the West: the aggressor state’s president Putin (which is waging propaganda war against the Western world) has managed to break international isolation. The number of Kremlin’s friends is increasing in the West.

The West is tired of confrontation with Putin: each time sanctions are prolonged forcedly, but Moscow has accommodated itself to such situation and does not face any serious problems because of restrictive measures.

However, since the annexation of Crimea, the West policy has never been coherent. Now, after the split of the West and after the election of American president who is afraid of Putin, the latter is using the situation for promotion of his own imperial ambitions.

The West was not split by itself, but the Russian president-aggressor did it: one part of western establishment condemns him, another part considers him as a strong leader whose public image is under pressure of Europeans. It was greatly contributed by the “successful” football championship in June. Putin has managed to create an illusion of freedom at the European guests. In fact, while fans were celebrating the victory of their teams, many imprisoners were being tortured and raped in Russian prisons. The great example of the “Russian Themis” is Oleg Sentsov, whose fate remains an important item of agenda for the whole world.

Putin has used vulnerabilities of Europe, i.e., anti-American tendencies and right populist sentiments caused by refugees’ crisis aggravation. Such mentality makes basis of Russians’ perception of the world. Medias, fully controlled by Kremlin, spread these messages via news and talk shows. The average Russian is often homophobe and racist, and is completely incompetent in the field of foreign policy and democratic values and therefore is completely loyal to the “leader”.

Putin’s strategy to deny permanently his participation in military campaigns, including Ukraine, and support of dictatorships around the world has achieved its goals. The discredit of “the world policeman”, the USA, under Trump’s ruling has contributed the same mission. The latter has proved to be unable to confront Putin and is inclining to support him. The fear that once Putin will confirm Russian intervention in presidential elections and its influence over the result – Trump’s victory – is too deep. Such scenario may cause loss of confidence of the US citizens and weaken Trump’s position inside the country. Therefore, Trump is on tenterhooks.

Read More