On September 14th, UAVs attacked two Saudi Aramco oil refineries in Saudi Arabia. The Shia group Ansar Allah from Yemen has been blamed, although there is no confirmation to this yet.
Regarding the impact of this case over the world oil market, no significant changes are not expected yet. September 15th saw prices grew by an average of 8-9%, but it is more speculative by its nature, taking into account the singularity of this case, the situation may soon return to normal. Representatives of the company stated that the damage repairing would take several days and in the near future its facilities would return to normal operation.
But the spike in oil prices nevertheless has occurred. And someone has managed to turn a dollar on it. And by a strange coincidence, a few days before the specified attack, on the Moscow Exchange, on September 11, an unknown player made a bid for strengthening the oil price. Of course, this is about conspiracy theory…, but it looks like someone knew about the impending attack and spike in prices. And a statement by the Russian leader that Saudi Arabia should consider the possibility of S-300 and S-400 missile systems purchasing from Russia may be a supporting evidence to it.
Such statements are more international trolling mixed with a peculiar sense of humor. Eventually, it is unlikely that someone would agree to shoot down vehicles that cost 400-500 dollars with missiles worth several million dollars. And it’s worth reminding to Mr.Putin that such missile systems have not helped much to protect his Syrian ally from Israeli air fleet attacks.
But let’s back to the attack of the oil facilities itself and oil prices. Such attacks will not dramatically affect oil price quotations, unless they are systemic. Of course, even their mass scale character will not push Saudi Arabia out of the oil market, but it may adjust the price trend for black gold. And this is especially beneficial for those countries which economies are directly dependent on the sale of oil and its derived products. And as evidenced in practice, such acts are not the most expensive. There are many UAVs, proposed by AliExpress, that are able to carry a small explosive package. Do not forget that the realities of the Persian Gulf mean you may always find someone to blame: any terrorist group from the region, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or even the internal conflicts of the Saudi elites. And who knows, suddenly an unknown player on the Moscow Exchange will bet on the short-term strengthening of world oil prices…
