While the whole resources of world community are directed to fight COVID-19 pandemic, Russia continues hybrid aggression against Ukraine. On Apr.24 Russian president signed the law on simplification of the Russian citizenship issue and cancelled state fee for the residents of so-called DPR and LPR by adopting Russian citizenship. Moreover, to obtain Russian this one it is required to decline foreign citizenship.
In Rostov region of Russia, the divisions of Federal migration service were opened, which issue large number of passports for Ukrainian citizens.
What is the purpose? Such hybrid method is being used by Russia for creeping annexation of occupied territories of Ukraine. Russian passports are provided to the residents, and most part of residents of so-called DPR and LPR became Russian citizens. It lets Russia to launch referendum on the annexation of the “republics” (with needed result). That was the way Russia “justified” the annexation of Crimea and now it will be the ground for “defence of its own citizens” in Donbas. The same way Russia acted in Transdniesteria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
It is obvious that direct invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territories could hardly be taken by world community. Even in the time of COVID-19 crisis international community will have no way out but to react to so openly violation of international law. Actually, that response is going to be quite harsh – by the intensification of sanctions.
Therefore, Kremlin choses the less risky way of annexation not territories, but population. Russia had acted the same way before Russian-Georgian war started in 2008. Russia also issued passports for people of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But neither Georgian authorities, nor international community had any clue that it was the way Russia constructed the ground for military intervention under the pretext of defence of its citizens and Russian-speaking residents, under the pretext of solving so-called humanitarian problems in the region.
Exactly the same strategy is used now in Donbas region. Mass issue of citizenship to the local residents is none other than preparation for justification of possible war scenario: the first is Russian passport issue, the second is military invasion under the pretext of “defence of Russian citizens”. Russian passports were issued automatically in Crimea and those who refused to adopt Russian citizenship were oppressed and intimidated by Russian authorities and security services. Now it is Russian strategy for so-called DPR and LPR.
It is highly likely that notorious experience of Moldova and Georgia is not enough to realize: the obtrusion of Russian citizenship to the people of occupied territories is preparation for future hot phase of military aggression against Ukraine. Kremlin prepares background to annex occupied territories of Donbas in case it is impossible to re-integrate them to Ukraine on Russian terms.
Russia roughly violates the sovereignty of Ukraine, ignores Minsk agreements and the agreements reached during Normand format. Though Russian minister of foreign affairs Sergei Lavrov appeals to Ukraine, saying there is no sense to hold another Normand meeting until previous agreements implemented, Russia refuses to implement their part of commitments. In particular, Moscow constantly makes statement that Ukraine has to provide direct negotiations with non-recognized republics, which are under Russian control. While the current authorities of Ukraine are ready to stop war with diplomatic instruments, Russia has to imitate the wish to find solution, because in the time of crisis, caused by pandemic and downfall of oil prices, it is critically important to cancel sanctions or to make them softer.
At the same time, the illegal issue of Russian passports is clear demonstration of real targets of Kremlin. Likewise, these actions completely disprove favorite thesis of Moscow that there is civil war in Ukraine. The military conflict between the citizens of two countries is not civil war. The military conflict in the East of Ukraine is continuation of Russian aggression, which became apparent in the occupation of the part of Donbas by Russian army and illegal armed units created and fully supported by Russia.
