Tag: Luhansk

The recent developments in Luhansk are represented for the international community as a conflict between “legally elected” head of the separatist LPR, Igor Plotnitsky, and its Deep State represented by the minister of internal affairs, Igor Kornet, and the minister of state security LPR Leonid Pasechnik.

Without going into the chronology and details of the events, as it has already been said enough in the media reports, it is possible to note a certain choreographed character of all that had happened. Yes, the conflict between the mentioned persons did not arise suddenly and not today, but existed long ago. But, generally speaking, both forces are nothing but two sleeves of the same Kremlin jacket, a kind of weights providing the Kremlin with control over its proteges in the region. And there was an explosion of emotions, a putsch and a threat of change in the leadership of the LPR.

This alone wouldn’t be a problem – one bandit and a thief would replace another – but there is one very essential detail. Moscow understands that Plotnitsky’s signature, even as a private person, stands under the Minsk agreements. LPR without him will not have any relations to the Minsk agreements in any way. But who is Plotnitsky? He is a private person whose signature without his position is under the Minsk documents and on whose behalf now someone is going to Minsk and is holding negotiations and consultations. But without these individuals – the whole process, the legality of which is already under a big question, will completely lose its legitimacy. I’m not mention about the possible forceful union of two pseudo-republics – LРR and DPR. This scenario has been actively considered in light of the events in Luhansk. Then, in general, a new “agency” arises and you can forget about the Minsk agreements.

Now we can ask, if developments in Luhansk are not a clear signal towards the US and the EU, that the Kremlin is not satisfied with the situation around the implementation of the Minsk agreements? We can see the option how it is possible to create a situation when the existing agreements will not correspond to a potentially new format of separatist entities and there will be an occasion to insist on the drawing up of new agreements, for example, under the name “Minsk 3”. And the settlement of the conflict will formally be postponed under a plausible pretext.

As it is Moscow will hush up this internal blow-up and will take an operational pause so that Plotnitsky’s and Kornet’s people could “calm down”.

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A wide circle of observers for the conflict between the authority of Luhansk pseudo-republic, which consists in Igor Cornet dismissal from the position of the “Minister of the Internal Affairs” of so-called LPR by Igor Plotnitsky and the disavowal of the latter to recognize it (resulting in a military confrontation in the center of Luhansk), seeks to find out some explanation for these events, to determine their causes and to predict results, more precisely, to predict who of the two Igor will win. But in fact all this does not matter. The events, steps and statements of the main and secondary players accompanying the said conflict (especially the Luhansk militants appeal to Alexander Zakharchenko to unite the LPR and the DPR under his leadership, and Mr. Zatulin statement that such union is absolutely logical) may indicate that Russia could orchestrate this situation, or at least predicted it (the probability of such situation has been boiling up all these years) and had long ago developed scenarios of its actions, as well as it was in winter 2014. That was the case of Viktor Yanukovych’s failure to manage the crisis on Ukrainian Maidan.

The truth is that, due to the diplomatic efforts of Kiеv and Western Allies, the resolution of the Donbass problem in a format related to the Minsk agreements implementation and possible deployment of non-Russian peacekeepers and return of control over the border area in no way satisfies Moscow. So it is necessary either to leave apart the Minsk peace process, or to “reshape” it. That’s why a crisis at the LPR top brass was so needed. Now in conditions when all necessary steps have been taken under the plan developed by Lubyanka, and in the absence of radio and television for some period, the situation will “freeze up” to allow analyzing the external reaction that in turn will allow deciding on the scenario of further development. The name of winner (among two Igor) depends on it.

In the case of I. Plotnitsky retirement from the stage as one of the signatories of the Minsk agreements, they (the agreements) will lose their legitimacy and, therefore it is necessary to choose new formats. If within the framework of new formats the ways of solution of the Donbass problem do not again satisfy the Russian side, the separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions can be united under the leadership of A. Zakharchenko, who is also a signatory of the Minsk agreements, and therefore it is possible to return to this format. Although the subject is different (not separate LPR and DPR, but the united Novorossiya), the agreements should be different – and you will receive Minsk III. And then they possibly will insist on conditions, which Kiev will never agree. The agreements will fail, which means the Kremlin will try to push the separate districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions into Ukraine in its present condition (and even worse) and will talk to its Western partners on its peacekeeping mission for ungrateful Ukrainians.

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