March 29, 2024

War conflicts in Syria, Libya and at the east of Ukraine have one common essential feature though the fundamental differences in their background, intensity and the course of war actions – Russia is taking active part in all of these conflicts. The extent and strategy of its involvement are noticeably different though Moscow takes part in these conflicts not least because it gives opportunity to bring pressure on EU and western countries. For Russia, war is the instrument to exert pressure and blackmail its partners.

To prove this statement, we have to overview the role of Russia in war conflicts in Syria, Lybia and at the east of Ukraine.

The Russian participation in Syrian conflict is the most highlighted by medias – Russian military forces are located in Syrian Arabic Republic at the instance of president Assad, who almost had lost control of country before Russian troops entered Syria. Russian military aircraft forces have greatly supported Assad regime since September 2015. But the result of unsighted massive air strikes was hundred thousands of people fled to Turkey and countries of the European Union. Right now, there are more than 4 million persons in refugees’ camps situated in Turkey, most of them try to gain entry to Europe by any means (there are approximately 534 thousands of Syrian refugees in Germany, though this number seems to be underestimated). The attempts of thousands of Syrian refugees to trickle into Greek territory resulted in using firearms by Greek border guard. Despite the hard humanitarian situation in the region, Russian officials provoked aggravation of conflict in Idlib, where the main units of armed opposition and refugees from all around the Syria were concentrated. Massive carpet air strikes of Russian military jets on housing estates of Idlib, using extra-high-power and anticoncrete bombs which destroyed the air-raid shelters and civilians inside caused another surge of refugees to Turkey (more than 1 million of refugees). In fact, Russia provokes the increasing of refugees number to exaggerate situation to blackmail Turkey and European Union: uncontrolled refugee outflow creates chaos in these countries, makes them supply survived refugees with minimal living conditions at the expense of their own state budgets.

Causing large-scale migration flow became the full-fledged instrument of Russia to bring pressure on its partners. It is obvious that numerous war crimes of Russian military aerospace forces cannot be explained by errors or shortcomings in operations management – it is very efficient instrument to destabilize situation in the region.

Another strategy is used by Moscow in Lybia – supporting Lybian National Army (LNA) headed by Khalifa Haftar to counterbalance the Government of National Accord recognized by world community, Moscow has no capability to transport its military aerospace units to Lybia. Likewise so-called field marshal Haftar is not legitimate leader of Lybia from the point of view of world community. Russia has provided numerous military shipments to Haftar forces. There was unsuccessful attempt to arrange negotiations between Haftar and al-Sarraj, the head of Government of National accord. While the military forces of the Government of National Accord received considerable military support of Turkey and started successful attack against Haftar (LNA lost control over the strategically important Al-Watyia airbase, situated to the south of Tripoli) Russia chose new level of supporting Haftar – Russian military jets (6 MiG-29 fighters and 2 SU-24 bombers) were moved from Syrian airbase Hmeimim to Lybia, then the LNA representative Saqr al-Jaroushi made statement about the “unprecedented strikes” on Turkish targets in Lybia.

Moscow does not recognize Haftar as the undoubted ally. Likewise, LNA headed by Haftar receives aid from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and UAE, which gives “field marshal” certain freedom compared with Assad, whose power in a small part of Syria is based only on Russian military aid and on Russian aerospace forces and special operations forces presented in Syria. Besides, Libya is the area of confrontation between Russia and Turkey today, this confrontation has started in Syria. But Turkish military servants are presented in Lybia following the official claim of internationally recognised government of Al-Sarraj. Russia shows the equal support of both parties, but indeed it supports Haftar and de facto illegal armed units of LNA. The supplies of military aircrafts to Haftar will definitely escalate the Lybian war conflict.

What is the real target of Moscow in Libya? The key target is creating obstacles for reconstruction of oil industry, which was almost completely destroyed in the time of Gaddafi’s overthrow in 2011. The reserves of Lybian oil are very large and their quality though some technical issues is much higher than Russian “Urals” oil brand. In the time of such unfavorable state of oil prices the reconstruction of Lybian oil industry and start of oil supplies to EU countries is extremely undesirable for Russia. It will be the new diversification channel for oil supplies, the dependence of Europe on Russian energy supplies will decrease.

The participation of Russia in armed conflict at the east of Ukraine has considerable differences. Russia has breached the international law by the annexation of the part of sovereign country – Crimean peninsula and created unrecognized by the world community formations called “DPR” and “LPR” at the south-east of Ukraine, using illegal armed units fully controlled by Russian government. Russia is the party of conflict and aggressor in this case. Hybrid methods of aggression are often used, in particular Russia has arranged mass issue of its passports to the residents of occupied territories of Ukraine, creating pretext to “defend Russian citizens”. In case of Russian participation in the conflict at the east of Ukraine the key factor was the desire to maintain its geopolitical influence in post-soviet space and to maintain its influence in Ukraine, in particular.

Blackmail of foreign partners and participation in war conflicts became the instruments for Russia to save the “glory” image and influence on geopolitical processes. Likewise, any attempts to find compromise Moscow interprets as sign of weakness (including the possible mitigation or even cancellation of sanctions against Russia), which just warms up the aspiration to use war actions in different countries to provoke the increasing of migration and energetic crises to blackmail partners and to force them to make another new concessions. War conflicts have already become one of the effective instruments for Russia to consolidate its geopolitical influence.

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