President Putin is going to take part in the “Asia-Europe” meeting (ASEM) in Milano on October, 16-17. Besides discussions of official agenda issues, some high level side meetings will take place there. There is no doubt that Ukraine will be in the focus of attention. However the question is what aim Russian President is going to achieve in Milano?
ASEM is a next step towards realization of his strategic goal, which is to change the world order to get an opportunity to satisfy Russia’s and his own imperial ambitions. Putin tries to carry out this task always and everywhere.
Complete control over Ukraine with its subsequent joining to Russia is one of the most important elements of Russian empire restoration in the form of the Euroasian Union. Putin goes towards his aim step by step.
Occupation and annexation of the Crimea is the first stage of his Ukrainian plan. The second one is organize separatist uprisings in two areas in the East of Ukraine. The third stage is occupation of the Eastern areas of Ukraine by regular Russian Army. Then comes conclusion of a truce between the self-proclaimed people’s republics and the Ukrainian government and, finally, an adoption of the law “On the special status of Donbass”. As a result, Putin will receive a powerful leverage to put pressure on Kiev and to stipulate his terms. Moreover, the danger of a large-scale military intervention will always hang over Ukraine’s head.
Russia accompanies its actions by information and economic wars against Ukraine.
It is clear that President Putin will continue to pursue his objectives, using both military and peaceful means depending on a political conjuncture. Now Putin is forced to resort to various tricks and political maneuverings to weaken the international counteractions. Putin hopes to use ASEM to solve the following problems:
– To break through diplomatic blockade of Russia;
– To suggest “reloading” of Russia-EU relations;
– To disrupt the unity of EU-US Anti-Putin coalition;
– To prompt the international community to weaken sanctions against Russia;
– To force President Poroshenko to make some concessions to reach a settlement on the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine.
Trying to produce a positive impression on the European public, Putin demonstrates so-called “peace-making intentions”, declaring, for example, withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian borders and their returning to places of usual dislocation. But actually it is a tactical maneuver of a politician; it cannot serve as the proof of his intentions to undertake real steps on situation settlement. It seems that Putin’s approach is aimed to justify activity of those European policy-makers and Russian interests lobbyists which call for dialogue to “reload” relations with Russia.
It is clear that many people in Europe, especially business community representatives, would like to decide Putin’s case as soon as possible, but at the same time they want to eat their cake and have it. It is a dangerous temptation to believe that Putin does strive for peace and you can do business with Russia as usual. Then there’s no need to confess that he is an aggressor and a liar and there’s no damage to your business and you needn’t to sacrifice even a little bit of you welfare for freedom of Ukrainian people.
Nevertheless it is very important to understand what’s happening. Not only Ukraine’s future is at stake, Europe and Ukraine are at the same boat. Putin undermines safety of EU calling into question inviolacy of its borders. Besides declaring that we are against conflicts and reshaping of borders, we must put an end to Russian aggression without any indulgences.