It’s not a secret, if we say that modern world endures a hard time. Someone can call it a New Cold War, others – next coil of confrontation between Russia and West. Let’s forecast further developments.
Everything began with the evasion of rules of international law, when Russian Federation, despite the calls of world community, annexed the Crimean peninsula, which is still the integral part of independent Ukraine. After that Russia began financing and supporting with armament and human resources terroristic organizations in eastern region of Ukraine. When Russian government saw inability of terroristic groups to control situation in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, regular Russian troops were redeployed to this part of Ukraine to lead combat operations against Ukrainian military. Despite Russian officials’ statements, that Russia has nothing to do with terroristic organizations – Luhansk People Republic and Donetsk People Republic and it does not support them with its own troops, there are a lot of indisputable evidences, which deny such statements. Here are some of these evidences.
We all remember the tragedy of Malaysian Airlines airplane shot down by rebels when almost three hundred passengers died. Questions are very simple: Where did they take modern antiaircraft missile system if they are just ordinary “self-defense forces” or who has trained them to use it? How can Russian officials explain the capture of Russian soldiers by Ukrainian Army on the territory of Ukraine? And, maybe, these officials can explain the increasing death rate of Russian soldiers during so-called “military exercises” in Rostov region? There are lots of questions, but Russian can’t give a clear answer on them.
The Ukrainian crisis has led to imposing the restrictive measures on Russian Federation by European Union, United States of America and number of other countries. These measures concern defense, energy and financial spheres. As retaliatory measures, Russia imposed its own sanctions on Western countries.
Obviously the war in Ukraine is provoked by Putin’s wish to distract attention of his country’s citizens from internal problems.
Oil and gas prices are falling down as well as Russian currency. This fact leads its economy to stagnation and reduction of GDP growth and economic decline.
Due to the escalation of Russian – Ukrainian tensions, Russia witnesses the rapid outflow of investments now. After the Standard and Poor’s has reduced Russian investment rating from BBB to BBB- level with a negative forecast, attracting foreign capital to Russia will become even more difficult. All attempts to attract foreign investments to Russia failed. Receiving of funds on the same conditions is still possible, but Russian companies should be ready to make additional concessions. At the same time, the conditions of loans may also be changed, and such changes will not be in favor of Russia. This may take the form of short-term loans, but that will cost too much.
The imposing of sanctions on Russian Federation involves a restriction of access to technologies for military and dual –purpose technologies.
It’s well-known fact that one of the main items of the Russian budget income is military-technical cooperation with foreign countries. Today Russia is not able to start the production of high-tech weapons. Despite of the official statements, the partial replacement of imported goods by homemade products Russia must spend billions of dollars. In fact, Russia has no time and has no money. Most of Russian companies of military – industrial complex are on the verge of bankruptcy and the full imports replacement of military and dual-purpose production is impossible because it would take decades.
The Crimean issue is not the least in the list. Russia got lot of problems by annexing the Crimea. The Crimean peninsula is not self-sufficient. It is not provided with its own electricity, fresh water, and even food. And before the onset of winter, the more disappointed people become. At all times the Crimea depended on tourism. This year the touristic season failed.
These are only few problems facing Russia. Also, there are social problems, such as low level of medicine, education, living standards, high mortality rate, corruption, etc.
This year The ASEM will be hosted by Italy in Milan on 16-17 of October. President Vladimir Putin will present Russia. Most of think tanks consider that the only aim of Russian president to visit Milan is to discuss the lifting of the restrictive measures with Europeans. The ASEM Summit in Milan could become the starting point, when Russia shows its readiness to de-escalate conflict in eastern Ukraine, change its policy on the Crimean issue, revise relations with Ukraine in exchange for a softening of the Western position.
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European leaders agreed on the sanctions last month but held off amid calls by some countries to see how the cease-fire played out. But the European Council, a body representing the leaders of European Union member nations, said in a notice in its Official Journal announcing the measures on Friday, that it “considers it appropriate to take further restrictive measures in response to Russia’s action destabilizing the situation in Ukraine.”