The political map of Europe is facing serious test – on Oct.13th there will be elections to Lower house and Upper house of Polish parliament. Ability of Prawo i Sprawiedliwość to keep its leadership may influence not so much the internal political situation in Poland as the relations inside the EU, because modern Poland may be considered as ‘friend’ of the US than other European countries.
According to The New York Times, ‘So at a time when the leaders of many allied nations are careful not to seem too close to him, Poland’s governing Law and Justice party embraces him’. It is Washington that has become the prime ally for Warsaw today, as evidenced not only by new energy contracts, but also by military partnership (the military contingent is going to be increased from 4.5 to 5.5 thousands). Moreover, a squadron of American MQ-9 is going to be placed in the territory of Poland, as the prime target is protection of Eastern borders.
This, in its turn, is frenzying Moscow. Especially, taking into account the fact that Russia has been always considered as a potential enemy for Poland. ‘If Russians disagree with any actions, it is good action, for sure’, – describes Polish expert, Jakub Korejba, the position of Polish elites.
Still it is unknown if the current trend in relations between Poland and the US will remain in future if centrist parties, aimed at the EU, win elections in Poland. So far, the ruling party has good chances to win. But may the situation change?
Poland, in fact, has double-party system consisted of Prawo i Sprawiedliwość and Platforma Obywatelska, both of them have a specific dominance in regions. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość dominates in the eastern provinces of Poland and Platforma Obywatelska gains stable support of voters form West provinces.
The ability of the ruling party to form a coalition will depend on the other parties, which will manage to win the elections. According to the numerous polls, held during the recent months (by Estymator, IBRiS, KANTAR institute), some small political groups have a chance to enter Sejm Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej. The approximate result of Prawo i Sprawiedliwość is estimated at 41 – 47%. ‘Opposition Civic coalition’ (consisted of Platforma Obywatelska, Nowoczesna and Partia Zieloni) is supported by 25-27% of voters. The third place is occupied by left-wing coalition, consisted of Wiosna, SLD and Razem. Approximately 13% of voters are ready to support them. There is another coalition, which may enter Sejm created by Polske Stronnictvo Ludowe and Kukiz’15. Under such circumstances Prawo i Sprawiedliwość will have 249 chairs, ‘Opposition Civic coalition’ – 141 chairs, left-wing parties – 53, and Polske Stronnictvo Ludowe and ‘Kukiz’15’ – 16 chairs.
Under any circumstances Poland demonstrates solid stability of political system: supporters of conservatism and clericalism – Prawo i Sprawiedliwość and supporters of liberal ideas and eurointegration – Platforma Obywatelska realize that radical ideas are imported to Poland from abroad. Moreover, though the Euroscepticism of President’s party, Poland has considerable benefits from the EU membership, at least, economic.
Nevertheless, we should not rule out a possibility of some attempts to instigate internal political conflicts, and to mess relations between Poland and its nearest neighbors and allies. As the saying runs – Cui prodest? But it is absolutely clear for whom energy contracts of Warsaw and Washington are disadvantageous, who is indignant with increase of NATO military troops and a possibility of a new US military base in Poland, who wants to create a new empire from Lisbon to Vladivostok. The interference in internal policy of other countries is not a new one for Moscow. Even more, it has become Russian political credo. There is no doubt that Russia will try to change balance of political forces in one of the most economically stable countries in Europe. One hopes on consciousness of Polish people, their adequate attitude towards their politics and real perception of modern world.