Shift to post-industrial economic, that takes place today, changes the production capacities, market structure and capital flows, while information technologies have got into all branches of economy absolutely, including defense industry. And though modern defense industry is characterized by jets of 5th generation, drones, invisible to radars, precise weapon, that provides exact targeting with possible inaccuracy to 1m, hypersonic missiles, laser guns and arsenal of unmanned equipment, ₋ even universal soldier keeps up to supply bread, grown from grain crops (known to mankind for a thousand years), and his forehead can be successfully hurt badly by ordinary stone.
In mass consciousness intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear war-head are still the most terrifying weapon on the planet. However modern world has changed so much that striking effect, caused by the launching of such missile, can be achieved by the group of hackers armed with laptops. Information era that is setting in totally changes principles of competitive surviving. According to new maxima, status of highly developed state is provided by modern capacities and technologies that are available, in the nearest future – by advanced researches and developments, and in future – by education.
It is well known that six years ago economic sanctions towards Russia were introduced, they are still valid. As a result, today Russia has serious problems with technical and scientific development, with state of education in general as well. The state of Russian economy and it’s defense industry depend on the state of economic base that corresponds with the age of industrialization.
Deal of supply of Russian IFV-3 to Vietnam that failed on February 2020 has become dramatic confirmation. Vietnam delegation concluded that modern model of Russian armor is absolutely inapplicable to be used in climate conditions of South-Eastern Asia. IFV-3, intended to be used by unpretentious Russian personnel, completely lacked minimal comfort for crew and was not adapted to operate in high-temperature environment (in particular, due to conditioner absence). Besides, according to Vietnam specialists, IFV-3 has low motor potential comparing to it’s сompetitors. In general, the purchase prices of Russian armored vehicles are one of the lowest, but their final price is extremely expensive, because of non-stop service requirement (it often turns broken and needs replacement of particular component).
Another example dates back to 2019. India issued a tender to supply anti-aircraft missiles of short-range air defense, which was participated by Russia. Russia offered anti-aircraft missile (gun+rocket launch system) “Pantsir C-1” (SA-22 Greyhound) and South Korea offered self-propelled armored vehicle “K30 Biho “Flying Tiger”. Though firepower of Russian missile system was higher, Russia lost the tender because it’s product turned to be technically impossible to integrate into the latest control systems of Indian Armed Forces.
This fact requires special attention, because the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have serious problems with modern military command and control systems. In 2015, France cancelled the contract of supply of two “Mistral” helicopter carriers, and Russian officials exasperatedly but still honestly admitted that Russian defense industry complex can construct body of such helicopter carrier and equip it with appropriate weapons, but it is unable to produce high-tech intercom and command/control equipment.
Russian Federation could boast of rocket launch systems, but, for example, US Army for a long time has not used carpet bombings with uncontrollable shells, which lead to large number of victims among civilians and great destruction of infrastructure. Instead of this, the USA and other countries with high-tech defense industry complexes use unmanned aerial vehicles and controlled shells, which strike the particular target with high accuracy.
The only sector which still gives the defense industry of the Russian Federation guaranteed orders is maintenance work and modernization of Soviet and Russian technique. For example, over the past years Russia has modernized “Fulcrum” jets, which Bulgarian Air Forces are armed with (however even after that Bulgarian pilots often refused to fly on renewed “Fulcrums” because of their high accident rate); repaired 4 military helicopters “Hip-H” for Hungary Air Forces (though these machines after being maintained still remain the previous century technique); has made major repairs of 10 “Hip” for Croatia Air Forces (though Zagreb officially claimed that contract was performed badly as many machines could not fly properly). Russian Federation defense industry managed to supply to Azerbaijan new weapons systems, but anyway it didn’t avoid juicy scandal. Baku complaints referred to the fact that military equipment produced by Russia doesn’t satisfy the requirements covered in the contracts, it regularly fails, and terms of service and spare parts provision supply are always delayed.
It should be taken into account that former countries-participants of Warsaw Treaty Organization long time ago have become a part of North Atlantic Alliance, that’s why sooner rather than later they will completely change their jets’ and helicopters’ parks and means of anti-aircraft defense on those produced by NATO states. It hasn’t happened yet because of lack of necessary budgetary funds in countries of former Communist bloc with badly developing economics. However, it is inevitably. For example, Poland has already signed contracts on acquisition of 32 American jets of 5th generation “F-35A Lightning II” (January, 2020), 4 heavy copters of Britain-Italian production “Leonardo helicopters AW101 Merlin” (2019), American air-defense missile system “Patriot” (2018). Other countries of the region are peering to different models of American, Swedish and French jets.
Due to the fact that Central and Eastern Europe (including Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine) inevitably slips away from Russian authority, the last is seeking for the support point in countries-participants of former USSR in Asia, Africa and Latin America. In 2015-17, the Russian Federation tried to approach Latin America and Caribbean Basin countries’ market introducing combat trainer “Mitten” (which after the USSR disintegration has become the first absolutely new example of Russian aircraft technique, but not modernized variant of models that already exist). As a result, a great number of unplanned landings, contingencies with engine, hydraulic system failures, accidents (without serious injuries) and catastrophes (7 cases) broke down negotiations regarding “Mitten” purchase.
It should be mentioned that till 2014 the vast majority of engines for Russian aircraft was produced in Ukraine (“Motor Sich” and “Ivchenko-Progress” enterprises), but after Crimea annexation and military conflict unleashed by Russia on Donbass Ukraine cut off supplies to invader. As a result, defense industry of the Russian Federation has made analogues of particular mechanisms, thus Russia hasn’t managed to reproduce a list of necessary engines.
It can be stated that import substitution policy claimed by Moscow has failed. Besides it, restrictions imposed by the West towards many branches of Russian economy keep blocking the development of Russian defense industry. In this connection new weapons deals are not settled and valid contracts are failing because of absence of foreign spare parts.
In general, in the context of further using of purely raw-material model of Russian economy (based on exploitation of mineral recourses and industrial power of the 1st half of the 20th century), as well as prolongation of international sanctions against the Russian Federation (which can be lifted only under the condition of entire deoccupation of Crimea and Donbass), Russian Federation defense industry has no chance to reinstate lost positions at the world weapon market.
Considering total lack of prospective high-tech developments in Russia the only thing defense industry of the Russian Federation can count for is successful sale of it’s best outdated armour to backward Third World countries (Libya, South Sudan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Venezuela). Apparently, Russia is fated to remain gasoline pump with nuclear weapon.
